Boeing, Airbus Can't Replace the 757

[SparrowHawk]

Couldn't an Airbus CJ (basically what BA operates between London and JFK) operate PHX-HNL? I'd think fewer seats would bring higher yields on a route like that.

I think the issue is IIRC from my informal class in airline yields from the Killer B's that HNL is a leisure destination and the competition is high and there is a lot of downward pressure on prices so that makes if difficult to get good high yield business. JFK to London is essentially a business route where its easier to boost yields and I think there might be less competition.

I have to believe there is enough lift to HNL that if US had fewer seats they'd have lower yields.

Now from a customer perspective I'd rather sit in a A321 for 5-6 hours then one of those bucket of bolts 757's that I are old enough to qualify for Social Security.

 

[700UW]

No 757 is 62 years old.

US had new builds in the late 90s.

 

[dariencc]

I tried to find out and couldn't without poring over media reports of orders, so does anyone know of an airline in the world that's ordered 321neo's at all, never mind as a 757 replacement for intercontinental routes?

Air Asia ordered 200. A bunch of other airlines have ordered lesser amounts, including American and Lufthansa.

 

[Iclubbabyseals]

I'd think fewer seats would bring higher yields on a route like that.

Huh?

You think that reducing the supply of seats on one carrier will result in higher yields? In one of the higher competitive markets where the supply of seats will happily take any fantasy yield you might imagine?

In the case you posit, I can imagine Hawaiian working a "deal" with your mentor (mesa) to fly your yield from PHX to LAX, where they can ride a real airplane (I love the 757, but not PHX-HI) to HI. In fact, doing what you suggest could very well lead to further deprecations to the westie route structure as other carriers see a "need" to extend their PHX-LAX/SFO operations.

Nice way to shoot yourself in the foot.

Had our fearless DUI leader not gambled away (lost) almost half a billion in cash four years ago, Hawaiian would just now be getting 330s and until now could only offer seats on their "ratty" 767-300 that they purchased when they were in bankruptcy.

 

[twoturnin]

Airbus does have a better wing than Boeing for the 321 verse 757. Thrust for 75 at around 45K and 321 around 30k to 33k pounds. Seems to me its about the almighty dollar. Cram the most stuff through all the doors for the least cost. 757 is no problem out of hot KLAS verse the 321's long wait for 7L EAST bound.

 

[wings396]

That's right, NW ordered and took delivery of 56 757-200s and 16 757-300s.

I'm going to disagree with you on this one. DL had a large number of 757's of their own prior to the merger with NW. I know that they didn't have any of the 300's in their own prior to the merger.

 

[SparrowHawk]

No 757 is 62 years old.

US had new builds in the late 90s.

It was a joke. Some of them are falling apart or at least look like they are.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I'm going to disagree with you on this one. DL had a large number of 757's of their own prior to the merger with NW. I know that they didn't have any of the 300's in their own prior to the merger.

Details aside, I think it's safe to say that DL became the largest 757 operator the same way it became the largest airline (before UA/CO) - by merger.

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

Jim,
I don't think anyone, including Airbus, has any expectations that the 321neo will be capable of transatlantic flying... it's not even clear that it will be capable of mainland-Hawaii.
Many of the orders for the neo are flexible within the 320 family so it's a good guess that based on the early results of the 320neo, orders may or may not occur for the 321neo.
CO has not indicated that it has any interest in attempting to use the 739ER on TATL routes so I'm not sure that there is any real desire to find a replacement for the 757 as long as there are plenty around that can do the job... and the most capable 757s are the oldest ones which could be around for another 20 years.
You are correct that the 321neo and 739ER will most likely replace the older, less capable 757s flying the least demanding domestic missions.
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BTW, DL became the largest 757 operator - to go along w/ its long held 767 title - when it acquired the ex-TW 757s from AA. Prior to that point, AA was the largest 757 operator. The DL acquisition of the ex-TW leases occurred prior to the merger, IIRC.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Jim,
I don't think anyone, including Airbus, has any expectations that the 321neo will be capable of transatlantic flying... it's not even clear that it will be capable of mainland-Hawaii.

Apparently Parker (or someone in the executive suite) wants to know, particularly about HI.

CO has not indicated that it has any interest in attempting to use the 739ER on TATL routes so I'm not sure that there is any real desire to find a replacement for the 757 as long as there are plenty around that can do the job...

First, the 737-900ER can't do the job - no wonder CO is not interesting in attempting to use it on TA routes. Second, CO's oldest 757 is a 2000 delivery - 11 years ago. No wonder they're not looking for a replacement yet. BTW, I just read last night that Boeing is going to call the re-engined 737NG's the 737-7, 737-8, and 737-9 to separate them from the 700/800/900. We need to adjust our shorthand accordingly.

the most capable 757s are the oldest ones

the older, less capable 757s

Which is it?

BTW, DL became the largest 757 operator - to go along w/ its long held 767 title - when it acquired the ex-TW 757s from AA.

The info I've seen on NW's fleet, specifically their 757's, shows that without them AA would still have the largest fleet of 757's.

Jim

 

[FWAAA]

I may be out to lunch, but I suspect that Boeing will eventually announce a carbon-fibre 787-style 737 replacement, and it will cover all current 737 and 757 missions. How?

At some point, Boeing will be able to deliver 300 or more 787s each year once it clears its huge learning curve hurdles. Isn't such a big stretch to design and build a new tube about 6-8 inches wider than the current 737 (and 757 and 727 and 707) tube - thus eliminating the A320 family width/comfort advantage.

I've heard that more fuel efficient engines generally require larger diameters, and the current 737 can't hold a much larger diameter engine due to its short-gear profile. Sits too low to the ground. So any vast improvement in fuel efficiency would require taller gear (not unlike the long-legged 757 gear). So a carbon-fiber 737 would necessarily have to sit on taller gear similar to the 757 gear. All A320 family planes already sit higher, so WN would have to adjust to taller aircraft anyway.

No doubt the 757 wing would need some work but it's not like inventing the wing all over again. Essentially, all new carbon-fibre future 737s would resemble 757s and thus, Boeing could design the 737 to seat 137-200 passengers with a single aisle (and those magical 18-18.5 inch coach seats) with a range up to 4,000 nm, enabling flights to Hawai'i and short TATL flights from the east coast plus, of course, all the other missions currently flown by 757s. If Boeing sees demand for 500-1000 long-range single aisle 757-replacements, it could certainly happen. I'll bet that DL, UA and AA will easily demand 500 of them alone to replace the current 757 fleet. And by 2020 or 2025, most 757s will be aged enough to warrant replacement.

Of course, all this hinges on the 787 delivering the fuel savings that Boeing has promised for the past few years. If the 787 is as efficient as advertised, I predict that a narrow-body 787 will quickly follow, rendering the re-engined aluminum 737 that AA demanded and ordered to be a non-starter paper airplane that will never be built. I don't see a future for a dual-aisle narrowbody that has been talked about on airliners.net recently. Never gonna happen, IMO.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I may be out to lunch, but I suspect that Boeing will eventually announce a carbon-fibre 787-style 737 replacement, and it will cover all current 737 and 757 missions.

As you probably know, Boeing has looked at several possibilities for a 737NG replacement - re-engine the NG (apparently what AA wanted/demanded), a "plastic" replacement to gain the efficiencies the 787 promises, and two different airplanes. The last is somewhat intriquing to me although it would split future version orders among two planes. Composite structure single and twin-aisle. The single aisle would be a replacement for the NG -700/800 (and possibly a special shorter model for corporate/oil sheiks) while the twin aisle would replace the NG-900 and 767-200. Above them would be the 787, 777, and 747-8.

While I think the acquiescence to AA's re-engine demand kept Airbus from getting all AA's latest order, it probably means putting off an all-new replacement. But if oil continues it's slow climb and environmental issues prove costly to airlines that could change.

As far as the 737 re-engine, you're right. Just read last night that Boeing has gravitated toward a 66" fan, smaller than what Airbus is going to put on the neo. Any larger would require a longer nose gear, which would require redesign of the electronics bay behind the nose gear, which would require changes in wiring, which would ..... What I read indicated that because of the smaller diameter fan the engine will be only 13-14% more efficient than those on the NG's instead of the 15% gain the engines on the neo promise. The good news in that for Boeing is that less engineering resourses will be involved in the re-engine, making any delay of an all-new plane(s) shorter if there is enough demand.

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

Jim,
there are several sites that contain fleet lists detailed enough with historical information about when specific aircraft entered and exited the fleet to be able to count when AA and DL switched places as being the largest 757 operator.
But I'm not sure what the point of doing so is... even if you don't want to believe that DL became the largest 757 by virtue of the transfer of the ex-TW 757s from AA to DL, the point still remains that DL still is the largest 757 operator TODAY.
But the total percentage of 757s in both AA and DL's domestic fleets is roughly comparable... so again I see no reason for a pi78ing contest.
The point remains that the 757 fills a role both in terms of current capacity that no other existing aircraft does even within the US (the 321 and 739 are both slightly smaller) and neither of them can provide the performance that the 757 can.
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I agree with you FWAAA regarding the likely potential for the 737RE other than that it is entirely possible that Boeing was willing to go for a redesigned 737 because they are focused on defending their widebody business which requires rolling out the 787, revamping the 777, and making money on the 748.
Boeing could resurrect several design elements of the 757 as the basis for an all new narrowbody - or it may be feasible for the 757 to be reengined. Remember there were proposals to reengine 727s and M80s at one time; it is entirely possible that someone could come up w/ a plan to hang new generation engines on the 757.

 

[BoeingBoy]

so again I see no reason for a pi78ing contest.

I don't really either - today is today, not yesterday. But I'd point out that you're the one that took exception to posts about how DL became the largest 757 operator - if it doesn't matter why make it an issue?

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

I simply pointed out that the largest carrier title transfer occurred before the merger and was related to DL's decision to enter the TATL market with 757s, a market which AA chose not to do with the ex-TW 757s, which notably DL was well familiar with because they were doing contract maintenance on those aircraft.
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The larger question remains how specific airlines will find a plane that will replace what the 757 does... given that US uses the 757 over both the Atlantic and to HI and also has some of the newer 757s, my guess is that even if US mgmt would like to know if the 321neo can operate some of those routes, the 757 will still be available for years to come.
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You can tell me where else US uses the 757 but the majority of US' 757 flying is doing roles which, as you note, likely cannot be replaced by next generation aircraft/engines.
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Other airlines including DL have the potential to replace more of their domestic 757 flying... but for now do not appear to be doing so in significant numbers.