You might be right. Oil may be under $80/bbl. We'll know who was closer once we get to December.
I agree with you and assume that AA will show a profit in the June report given that it showed a $2 million profit in May, excluding reorganization expenses:
http://www.amrcaseinfo.com/pdflib/3353_15463.pdf
Of course, the profitable airlines like UA and DL probably had profits in May and June of more like $200 million instead of just $2 million. Once AA trims its labor expenses, it too will report large profits.
