A good read on the merger:

[WorldTraveler]

If the gov't really shuts down, the whole process grinds to a halt and even if it is stalled for a certain period of time, the DOJ could argue that it lost time....

we'll know by this time tomorrow but the US gov't probably won't really shut down.....

I agree with Wings that Parker has little tolerance for running money losing flights... but that doesn't mean there is a certain cyclicality in every airlines' finances. It also doesn't mean that airlines bail out of routes the minute they start losing money, esp. when the losses involve key, strategic markets.

Yes, Jacobin, I agree about the importance of LHR and the local market. You are also correct that there is beyond traffic flowing thru there. But it is precisely because Skyteam and Star with their more heavily continental Europe hubs have greater opportunity to connect traffic because there are multiple hubs involved and because LHR will always be prioritized for local traffic just because of its value.

If another major airport is ever built in Europe, I would be surprised, esp. in Europe. I'm not sure there will ever even be another runway added at a major European airport. Maybe it will happen but I will be very surprised.

 

[eolesen]

The courts and law enforcement are exempt from the shutdown, not sure about the rest of the DOJ, but since their staff are largely salaried, it won't matter. Lawyers and their staffers get paid by the month, not the hour.

 

[Barfbag]

** They'd have more US citizens working there if it weren't for the bizzare notion the IRS has for taxing US citizens living abroad at the same rate as though they lived inside the US

There's $100 billion yearly that goes missing overseas by these clowns that don't want to pay... US taxes..being expatriates.

If you want to hide behind the US passport and live overseas then.. Pay up buddy.. The US is broke.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The US does provide tax relief for Americans working overseas. It is called the Foreign Income Exclusion Act. It doesn't provide unlimited exemptions but it does reflect that Americans living overseas do not use many of the same gov't services that people who live in the US use. Further, in many countries, Americans may be required to pay taxes to the foreign government in which they live. The US has tax treaties with a number of countries to reflect the global nature of business.

Now that the gov't is shutdown, it is hard to know exactly what will happen but you can only look back to the sequester to realize it did have an impact on gov't business, the overall US economy, and the financial health of airlines that have a large DC-area presence.

There are many workers who are not salaried and will not remain on the job and salaried, non-essential workers will not remain on the job for long if there is no budget agreement reached soon.

If a shutdown continues for any length of time, the AA/US merger will be impacted - as will many other aspects of the US gov't.

 

[Jacobin777]

do you think this may play into the favor side for the 2 airlines or the doj

The Texas AG has called it quits with their side of the case however I think it has more to do with the fact the merger is a "hot potato" in Texas. There are more than enough states in the lawsuit and even if all the states drop, its still up to the DOJ which still as of right now doesn't seem to interested in dropping the case. Of course, we don't know what's happening behind closed doors.

If the gov't really shuts down, the whole process grinds to a halt and even if it is stalled for a certain period of time, the DOJ could argue that it lost time....

Doesn't the DOJ also have a right to appeal the case regardless of what happens?

Yes, Jacobin, I agree about the importance of LHR and the local market. You are also correct that there is beyond traffic flowing thru there. But it is precisely because Skyteam and Star with their more heavily continental Europe hubs have greater opportunity to connect traffic because there are multiple hubs involved and because LHR will always be prioritized for local traffic just because of its value.

Just like AF/KL are the two large European Skyteam carrier, so is BA and to a certain extent, the ever-expanding AB. Don't forget, Finnair as well which is very strong in Asia. Once IB gets its "house in order" so-to-speak, it will provide importantan and valuable feed/traffic to South America (which apropos, its already strong).

If another major airport is ever built in Europe, I would be surprised, esp. in Europe. I'm not sure there will ever even be another runway added at a major European airport. Maybe it will happen but I will be very surprised.

I'm all for expanding LHR which can be done properly. Adding another runway and decreasing the curfew would add hundreds, if not thousands of flights to LHR. Also, the "Cranford Agreement" really isn't a binding agreement in the first place.

The US does provide tax relief for Americans working overseas. It is called the Foreign Income Exclusion Act. It doesn't provide unlimited exemptions but it does reflect that Americans living overseas do not use many of the same gov't services that people who live in the US use. Further, in many countries, Americans may be required to pay taxes to the foreign government in which they live. The US has tax treaties with a number of countries to reflect the global nature of business.

Now that the gov't is shutdown, it is hard to know exactly what will happen but you can only look back to the sequester to realize it did have an impact on gov't business, the overall US economy, and the financial health of airlines that have a large DC-area presence.

There are many workers who are not salaried and will not remain on the job and salaried, non-essential workers will not remain on the job for long if there is no budget agreement reached soon.

If a shutdown continues for any length of time, the AA/US merger will be impacted - as will many other aspects of the US gov't.

Especially US being impacted.