( A few) PHX questions Pleeeeease !

[jimntx]

Jim you must be flying to Bizarro PHX . YTD Load factors PHX (81.5) DFW(79.0) ORD (79.7) CLT (78.3)of course revenue is a different animal

Let's be honest now. Those load factors include all the Barbie jets that fly into/out of Phoenix. It's not so hard to fill a 40-seat aircraft.

 

[Albert]

Let's be honest now. Those load factors include all the Barbie jets that fly into/out of Phoenix. It's not so hard to fill a 40-seat aircraft.

That would factor in with the other hubs too wouldn't it?

 

[zethya]

I predict that Parker will leave AA within the next 2 years. After that, PHX could be toast.

 

[Albert]

I predict that Parker will leave AA within the next 2 years. After that, PHX could be toast.

Anything could happen AA could get more gates at LAX that might do it for PHX there could be a down turn who knows. I never thought there would be such a thing as a LGA slot swap but it happened. I doubt I would uproot my family for as position in RSW but I would give PHX a shot

 

[jimntx]

That would factor in with the other hubs too wouldn't it?

I believe the percentage of rj flights to total flights is higher at PHX than at the others, is it not? But, let's just let it drop. Obviously, PHX is the premier business generator for AA in the U.S. and closure of LAX and DFW are imminent. As Mark Twain once said, "There are lies. There are damn lies. And, then there are statistics."

 

[strangiatotheme]

I believe the percentage of rj flights to total flights is higher at PHX than at the others, is it not? But, let's just let it drop. Obviously, PHX is the premier business generator for AA in the U.S. and closure of LAX and DFW are imminent. As Mark Twain once said, "There are lies. There are damn lies. And, then there are statistics."

No, actually, PHX is and always has been predominantly mainline. Let's take today as an example:

PHX Total Departures - 262
Mainline 171 / 65.3%
Regional - 91 / 34.7%

Compared to other hubs and gateways, PHX actually ranks third in this metric behind MIA and JFK:

MIA Total Departures - 333
Mainline - 264 / 79.3%
Regional - 69 / 20.7%

JFK Total Departures - 91
Mainline - 70 / 76.9%
Regional - 21 / 23.1%

LAX Total Departures - 190
Mainline - 117 / 61.6%
Regional - 73 / 38.4%

DFW Total Departures - 756
Mainline - 434 / 57.4%
Regional - 322 / 42.6%

CLT Total Departures - 647
Mainline - 305 / 47.1%
Regional - 342 / 52.9%

ORD Total Departures - 442
Mainline - 188 / 42.5%
Regional - 254 / 57.5%

PHL Total Departures - 351
Mainline - 143 / 40.7%
Regional - 208 / 59.3%

DCA Total Departures - 255
Mainline - 80 / 31.4%
Regional - 175 / 68.6%

Let's be honest now. Those load factors include all the Barbie jets that fly into/out of Phoenix. It's not so hard to fill a 40-seat aircraft.

True that those are aggregated, however, when you break them out, PHX Mainline is still carrying a higher LF today than Regional to the tune of about 6.6%. Mainline is also carrying a lower percentage of connecting passengers; in fact, on an annualized basis, PHX seems to break just about even when it comes to connecting vs local. I'm sure helps make up some of the difference in yield and cost disadvantages. I can guarantee you that this is not the case in DFW and CLT, which run consistently higher percentages of connecting pax through their hubs.

Also, PHX is down to, if I'm not mistaken, a grand total of 2 CRJ-200 departures (50-seaters) that represent at-risk flying by OO to SGU. The rest of the RJ departures are on CRJ-700s and -900s. We have the good fortune of being almost exclusively 2-class.

And more to the point of load factors, here's where the other hubs and gateways sit relative today to PHX's combined LF:

CLT (-5.9)
DCA (-11.6)
DFW (-10.4)
JFK (-13.3)
LAX (-2.6)
MIA (-6.6)
ORD (-2.8)
PHL (-11.8)

The entire month of March, and late winter/spring in general, is consistently like this, and it's only been getting worse.

 

[Albert]

I believe the percentage of rj flights to total flights is higher at PHX than at the others, is it not? But, let's just let it drop. Obviously, PHX is the premier business generator for AA in the U.S. and closure of LAX and DFW are imminent. As Mark Twain once said, "There are lies. There are damn lies. And, then there are statistics."

He also said "the rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated" such is PHX

 

[jimntx]

As I said, even though PHX is sitting between DFW and LAX, and even though the total emplanements for PHX (all airlines) were down over 1 million passengers in 2016 compared to 2015 (that may be 2015 over 2014), there is no doubt that PHX will survive as the leading hub for AA for eternity. After all we can still say that STL is still there, can't we? The fact that STL has something like 30 departures/day now, compared to 200 departures/day in 2004, and 600 departures/day the last year that TWA operated, STL is still there.

 

[Albert]

As I said, even though PHX is sitting between DFW and LAX, and even though the total emplanements for PHX (all airlines) were down over 1 million passengers in 2016 compared to 2015 (that may be 2015 over 2014), there is no doubt that PHX will survive as the leading hub for AA for eternity. After all we can still say that STL is still there, can't we? The fact that STL has something like 30 departures/day now, compared to 200 departures/day in 2004, and 600 departures/day the last year that TWA operated, STL is still there.

Maybe not eternity, but it will likely outlast your remaining years with AA.Hopefully and sincerely that will be a long time

 

[strangiatotheme]

As I said, even though PHX is sitting between DFW and LAX, and even though the total emplanements for PHX (all airlines) were down over 1 million passengers in 2016 compared to 2015 (that may be 2015 over 2014), there is no doubt that PHX will survive as the leading hub for AA for eternity. After all we can still say that STL is still there, can't we? The fact that STL has something like 30 departures/day now, compared to 200 departures/day in 2004, and 600 departures/day the last year that TWA operated, STL is still there.

Mostly correct, total passengers in PHX were down about 1.4%, or just over 600,000 passengers, from 2015 to 2016. But the bigger question is, is this isolated to PHX or does this describe the rest of the system as well? I'll offer up this comparison between scheduled mainline departures at PHX and DFW for March of 2016 and 2017:

PHX
2016: 10,209 (292/day)
2017: 9,410 (269/day)

DFW
2016: 26,807 (766/day)
2017: 25,467 (728/day)

The trend is pretty clear; if we saw DFW gaining or remaining flat, that would be more cause for alarm.

PHX clearly isn't AA's leading hub and won't be, probably ever, but since you keep claiming that all these flights through PHX are empty and that it is somehow indicative of the performance of the station, it was worth pointing out that right now, PHX has some of the highest load factors in the system. Just like every other station has its ups and downs, LFs will fluctuate greatly here too. My last few international flights out of LAX were half empty too, but that doesn't mean the station or the Pacific network are suddenly becoming unviable.

 

[strangiatotheme]

Like almost all Old Farts, the snow and cold finally takes it's toll. (Yes, it happens to Ol ' BEARS too.) (I know, I know they hibernate. ). But the time is drawing ever closer for a Hot, yet Zero HUMIDITY climate. That obviously = A Z. (Besides, the opportunity to reside in the SAME state as Eric..eolesen is very tempting, VERY Tempting.) ( Ha Ha Ha ).
So now, a few PHX questions please.
In PHX, @ sky harbor, in Terminal 4, What contractor(s) provide sevices to AA and WN ? More specifically in the job titles of 'Passenger Assistants', like in directing passengers, navigating Kiosks, Wheel Chair 'drivers' ( $$$$ ), and finally Cabin cleaning ?
Lastly, is PHX 'shrinking' as an AA Hub, as some have prognosticated ?

Thanx in advance !!!

For AA, Prospect would fall into the category of passenger assistance, and JetStream is used for cabin cleaning. On the WN side, I believe they use AirServ for passenger assistance.

 

[eolesen]

Thanx E, it was TUS that I was really looking at. Imagine the ol' BEAR hustling old ladies around in wheelchairs, or perhaps a skycap, even shuttling rent-a-cars around. What Airline ARE you working for now ? (A PM will do.) Regards to Ms. E !

If you do decide to look into TUS, ping me on suggestions for where to avoid. 😉

All you need to know is I'm happily *not* working for AA or any of its tangled web of partners/subsidiaries, and unlike others, choose not to discuss or disclose my employer online.

 

[UPNAWAY]

PHX isn't going anywhere. Maricopa is the fastest growing county in the US, Over 4 million in population. PHX will probably be one of the top 5 fastest growing areas for another decade at least. More and more businesses are moving to PHX which will only increase RASM.

 

[Jester]

Interesting news (rumor?) that LAX terminals will have major construction forcing AA to move some flights out and not into PHX, but to LAS instead??? If true, not sure what that says about PHX if instead the Company would prefer to go point-to-point from LAS than to run through the PHX hub.

 

[IORFA]

I've heard that there may be news on AA's eventual take over of T5. It won't happen anytime soon, as there isn't really any place to send the airlines that would be forced out as of today. Although with a potential T0 and/or T9 along with the MSC there would be plenty of room for them and for AA to grow. With that we have heard that there are plans being drawn up or already completed for a complete re do of the T4/5 head house and for it to be connected with a couple new stories added for office and employee spaces along with a giant new club and a complete redo of the security situation. Potentially one centralized station for both terminals with plenty of room AND security lines. All of the above would be greatly appreciated by all who frequent the terminal. As to the rumor of flights moving to LAS, eh maybe. I'm not to sure PHX could handle too much more through put. They seem close to/if not already maxed out gate wise. Vegas might have a little space to help out. With the major construction I've heard rumors about, it might happen, but I'm not too sure how many gates if any it would take away. My guess would be 2 at most, the first ones in the alley between 4 and 5. Also, anyone know who took over the America West hangar this month? AA said it went to someone else, just didn't say to whom. Also, any LAWA insiders have any info on the super bay status?