2022 Profit Sharing

[CremaDiLimone]

well, this has been discussed in the delta thread - so, we'll make a thread here. the fantastic news that the 2022 profit sharing year is based on dates april 1, 2022-march 31, 2023 is all the money.

i had personally based my predictions off of $1.8 billion in pre-tax for the last 3 quarters of 2022 and a break-even 1q 2023.

on tuesday, j p morgan held an airline investors' conference and this is what isom said:

So as we take a look at what that demand translates into, it’s been profitability. So for American, again, at the time that Doug was here last year, we were about to talk about first quarter results that produced a loss of $1.9 billion, a huge sum of money, big hole to climb out of. But fortunately, revenue production and managing the airline well, it produced results over the course of the year where we were able to not just rebound but actually able to produce a pretax profit for the year, so, a really nice result. Small pre-tax profit but still something that

we are really proud of $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits over the last three quarters

that resulted in that full year profitability.

ok...so, isom said $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits for the last 3 quarters of 2022. excellent. if so, an additional $60 million in the kitty - bumps up the clean average to $8k per, for 30,000 assoc. employees. this is not the distribution formula, but it gives us an idea of what is to come.

could get better...aa forecast for 1q 2023 jetfuel:

It expects that cost to come down to somewhere between $3.33 and $3.38 per gallon as it heads into its first quarter of 2023.

ok. iata tells us this:

Recent jet fuel price developments​

DATE	INDEX
10 Mar	298.7
3 Mar	316.9
24 Feb	308.5
17 Feb	292.6

jet fuel has been lower in the past month than forecasted - albeit, jan was higher, if i remember correctly. oil went down significantly the past few days due to the banking issues and will likely be lower the rest of march.

what i'm getting at is if isom's $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits is correct and aa makes a humble $101 million pre-tax profit in 1 quarter 2023, then the kitty doubles, from 10% of all pre-tax profits to 20%.

weaasles, i throw bags for a living. use your union connections to verify this scenario.

it could get much better than my optimistic prediction.

 

[WeAAsles]

well, this has been discussed in the delta thread - so, we'll make a thread here. the fantastic news that the 2022 profit sharing year is based on dates april 1, 2022-march 31, 2023 is all the money.

i had personally based my predictions off of $1.8 billion in pre-tax for the last 3 quarters of 2022 and a break-even 1q 2023.

on tuesday, j p morgan held an airline investors' conference and this is what isom said:


ok...so, isom said $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits for the last 3 quarters of 2022. excellent. if so, an additional $60 million in the kitty - bumps up the clean average to $8k per, for 30,000 assoc. employees. this is not the distribution formula, but it gives us an idea of what is to come.

could get better...aa forecast for 1q 2023 jetfuel:

ok. iata tells us this:



jet fuel has been lower in the past month than forecasted - albeit, jan was higher, if i remember correctly. oil went down significantly the past few days due to the banking issues and will likely be lower the rest of march.

what i'm getting at is if isom's $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits is correct and aa makes a humble $101 million pre-tax profit in 1 quarter 2023, then the kitty doubles, from 10% of all pre-tax profits to 20%.

weaasles, i throw bags for a living. use your union connections to verify this scenario.

it could get much better than my optimistic prediction.

Don’t forget Crema the 20% is only on the amount above $2 Billion. So in what you posted it would be 10% of $2 Bil and 20% of $500 Mil.

And I obviously hope you’re a great math wiz?

Had to Edit here. It’s anything over $2.5 Billion that hits that 20%

 

[WeAAsles]

BTW Crema thanks for letting me know about this one. I missed it and I love reading these things and sharing them on my Group page.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) J.P. Morgan 2023 Industrials Conference (Transcript)

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:AAL) J.P.

seekingalpha.com

 

[WeAAsles]

Crema if Operating Income is Profit and Delta earned $3.6 Bil sharing $500 Million with their employees amounting to 5.6% of their year end gross and they have less employees to share with, how do you calculate if AA earned $2.4 Bil that we will have a larger percentage payout? They have the same Profit Sharing formula 10/20% that we do.

 

[WeAAsles]

Pictures of the last 3 years Delta payouts before the pandemic which includes Profit Sharing totals and the individual payout percentage.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

Crema if Operating Income is Profit and Delta earned $3.6 Bil sharing $500 Million with their employees amounting to 5.6% of their year end gross and they have less employees to share with, how do you calculate if AA earned $2.4 Bil that we will have a larger percentage payout? They have the same Profit Sharing formula 10/20% that we do.

View attachment 17319

the payout percentage for assoc. members will be higher than delta's because of the few who will divvy up the kitty. remember...delta had/has many more employees to distribute that apprx $540 million of 2022 profit sharing with, than aa has to distribute (we'll use isom's own numbers of the last 3 quarters) $240 million with a much lesser amount of 30,000 assoc. members. dilution. currently, i believe that aa's assoc. members are the only aa workers with 'delta's' formula. i did hear that level 5s and above will get very nice bonuses. not sure about mystery level 4s. it bothered me to hear that a few very good supervisors, level 3s, really didn't get much in terms of raises after their annual previews/reviews.

what is interesting is this quarter, the final quarter to add or subtract from either $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits for the formula. aa had forecasted this quarter as break-even. 1st quarters are usually slower and fuel was high. fuel has gone down, the loads are better than expected and i believe the fares have remained high. isom reaffirmed guidance for 1q '23 and the whole of 2023 at that investor's conference....1q '23, break-even. there's a chance aa can surprise to the upside. if so, that only adds to the kitty.

the contract says pre-tax and isom said $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits the last 3 quarters of 2022 to make 2022 a barely profitable year, after the terrible covid 1q 2022.

 

[WeAAsles]

the payout percentage for assoc. members will be higher than delta's because of the few who will divvy up the kitty. remember...delta had/has many more employees to distribute that apprx $540 million of 2022 profit sharing with, than aa has to distribute (we'll use isom's own numbers of the last 3 quarters) $240 million with a much lesser amount of 30,000 assoc. members. dilution. currently, i believe that aa's assoc. members are the only aa workers with 'delta's' formula. i did hear that level 5s and above will get very nice bonuses. not sure about mystery level 4s. it bothered me to hear that a few very good supervisors, level 3s, really didn't get much in terms of raises after their annual previews/reviews.

what is interesting is this quarter, the final quarter to add or subtract from either $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits for the formula. aa had forecasted this quarter as break-even. 1st quarters are usually slower and fuel was high. fuel has gone down, the loads are better than expected and i believe the fares have remained high. isom reaffirmed guidance for 1q '23 and the whole of 2023 at that investor's conference....1q '23, break-even. there's a chance aa can surprise to the upside. if so, that only adds to the kitty.

the contract says pre-tax and isom said $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits the last 3 quarters of 2022 to make 2022 a barely profitable year, after the terrible covid 1q 2022.

I don’t know man. I get the feeling that you’re (we’re) going to be very disappointed with our cut? Yes we are the only ones currently with that higher payout formula but the rest of the Company does get a payout as well which I believe is 5%

Again I’m not sure how the pools works and yes Delta does all share from the same pool but I can’t see that AA has all different pools either? Is AA under Contractual requirements to have all different pools thus seriously affecting the profits they get to keep compared to Delta?

I will ask if someone from the TWU or the Association can share an accounting of the formula though once we know what our payouts are.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

no, i believe the assoc. gets a full percentage, only for assoc. members, not to be diluted by giving other work groups profit sharing money from our 'pool'.

example, if aa earns $2 billion in pre-tax profits over a fiscal year, $200 million is set aside for assoc. members. the company won't give 5% of that $200 million to ticket agents and others and then give the rest, say, $150 million, to be divided amongst assoc. members. if that were case, then we (assoc. members) are not getting 10% of the pre-tax profits as specified in the contract.

the reason people like me and you will get more is simple. many FSCs with less than 3 years seniority who earned $45k-$50k, may get $3.5k checks? to balance out the average of $6k (based off $1.8 billion), others, like me and you, may get $8k checks. i earned $90k last year. i'm sticking with anywhere between 7%-9% of last year's income, another 1.5%-2% higher, if we are indeed at $2.4 billion in pretax profits.

all in all, the best profit sharing check we've ever gotten; will be distributed in a few months. AMTs also excited.

my question is the current figure. $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion? makes for good conjecture...we'll find out in time.

plenty of money to be passed around. as i heard, level 5s and above are getting very generous bonuses. sad to say, some deserving level 3 supervisors appear to have been shafted. in ord, united has poached some talent and will likely poach more from aa mngt.

in my estimation, the company is doing a VERY POOR job of distinguishing it's talent and non-talent. i say this as a shareholder. some of the level 5s and higher are very disappointing.

 

[WeAAsles]

no, i believe the assoc. gets a full percentage, only for assoc. members, not to be diluted by giving other work groups profit sharing money from our 'pool'.

example, if aa earns $2 billion in pre-tax profits over a fiscal year, $200 million is set aside for assoc. members. the company won't give 5% of that $200 million to ticket agents and others and then give the rest, say, $150 million, to be divided amongst assoc. members. if that were case, then we (assoc. members) are not getting 10% of the pre-tax profits as specified in the contract.

the reason people like me and you will get more is simple. many FSCs with less than 3 years seniority who earned $45k-$50k, may get $3.5k checks? to balance out the average of $6k (based off $1.8 billion), others, like me and you, may get $8k checks. i earned $90k last year. i'm sticking with anywhere between 7%-9% of last year's income, another 1.5%-2% higher, if we are indeed at $2.4 billion in pretax profits.

all in all, the best profit sharing check we've ever gotten; will be distributed in a few months. AMTs also excited.

my question is the current figure. $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion? makes for good conjecture...we'll find out in time.

plenty of money to be passed around. as i heard, level 5s and above are getting very generous bonuses. sad to say, some deserving level 3 supervisors appear to have been shafted. in ord, united has poached some talent and will likely poach more from aa mngt.

in my estimation, the company is doing a VERY POOR job of distinguishing it's talent and non-talent. i say this as a shareholder. some of the level 5s and higher are very disappointing.

I’m going to remain both cautiously optimistic and pessimistic.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

yeah, i understand. i'm more optimistic, but it's conjecture - not even sure if the figure is $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits going into this last quarter of 2022's profit sharing year.

conjecture.

 

[Kev3188]

yeah, i understand. i'm more optimistic, but it's conjecture - not even sure if the figure is $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits going into this last quarter of 2022's profit sharing year.

conjecture.

Optimism is a rare commodity in our industry. Let's hope your math is correct!

 

[WeAAsles]

yeah, i understand. i'm more optimistic, but it's conjecture - not even sure if the figure is $1.8 billion or $2.4 billion in pre-tax profits going into this last quarter of 2022's profit sharing year.

conjecture.

Notice how in the language it separates in parentheses (Total Profit Sharing Pool) and (TWU/IAM Association Profit Sharing Pool)

 

[CremaDiLimone]

more good news for this quarter...update on jet fuel prices:

iata tells us that n. america prices are at $2.57 a gallon. .75 to .80 cents a gallon less than aa had forecasted as the average price per gallon for 1 quarter '23.

with pilots putting pressure on all airlines, don't see any huge fare war in the future. lower jet fuel and fares remaining where they are - a recipe for profits.

 

[SWAMECH]

more good news for this quarter...update on jet fuel prices:


iata tells us that n. america prices are at $2.57 a gallon. .75 to .80 cents a gallon less than aa had forecasted as the average price per gallon for 1 quarter '23.

with pilots putting pressure on all airlines, don't see any huge fare war in the future. lower jet fuel and fares remaining where they are - a recipe for profits.

This is good news for all airlines.
Only fare wars we'll see are the ones generated by JB to help try to show the DOJ/DOT that the merger will bring lower prices. But we all know what will really happen.

 

[WeAAsles]

more good news for this quarter...update on jet fuel prices:


iata tells us that n. america prices are at $2.57 a gallon. .75 to .80 cents a gallon less than aa had forecasted as the average price per gallon for 1 quarter '23.

with pilots putting pressure on all airlines, don't see any huge fare war in the future. lower jet fuel and fares remaining where they are - a recipe for profits.

Not seeing that relief in oil prices reach the gas pumps yet though unfortunately. As for the rest of the topic it’s just a waiting game now.

Also waiting to see what the IAM and UAL eventually settle on with their contract negotiations so we can get a gauge of where we’re headed in that area. They’re close to a resolution but it looks like FT/PT protections seems to be the last sticking point.

United Airlines Contract Negotiations

iam141.org