1st Day In Pit

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

Well, you know, I come from an older school of thought where new stations were expected to take a while to build traffic and if nothing went out the first day with only 7 passengers it was considered a grand opening.

Philadelphia opened strong and it appears that Pittsburgh is going to do equally well.

When you consider that this is a Wednesday, the loads looked exceptional.

PIT-LAS #475 110/137

PIT-MCO #2672 116/137

MCO-PIT #2754 43/137

PIT-MDW

#1309 = 93/137
#1689 = 98/137
#918 = 110/137

MDW-PIT

#224 = 53/137
#2431 = 61/137
#1052 = 124/137

PIT-PHL

#872 = 87/137
#1984 = 82/137
#2825 = 84/137

PHL-PIT

#507 = 105/137
#475 = 86/137
#2983 = 90/137

That's a 65.3% load factor, which I would guess is better than the system average on a Wednesday.

The outbound loads looked good...there were some lighter loads inbound, which makes sense when you consider some people flew out 3 or 4 days ago on someone else and they weren't going to fly back on WN since they bought a round trip.

I can't really criticize the operations either:

The trips to Chicago got to their destination 15, 19, 20, and 26 mins early respectively.

The trips to Philadelphia arrived 1 early, 5 early, 16 early, and exactly on time.

The trip to Orlando got in down there :03 late.

The flight to Las Vegas got in 18 minutes early. I'm sure those pax were delighted to have 18 extra minutes to strike it rich.

Coming into Pittsburgh, (from PHL) flights were 15 early, 16 early, 7 late. The flights from Chicago have been 3, 22, and 15 minutes early. Orlando was 31 minutes late :-( and the flight from Las Vegas is enroute...got out of there late (had to give folks some extra time to win enough money to buy a ticket I guess) but right now it is showing :03 late at the gate is all.

All things considered, a great first day. Southwest folks you can all pat yourselves on the back, you;ve earned it....but don't become complacent.

Oh, and one last thing.....looking at the best DOT stats I can get my hands on, PHL-PIT was a 421 passenger per day market. Through 6 of the 8 trips today )mid week!) Southwest had carried 534. I have to assume most of those were locals, since not many connections are offered via PHL. That means they are on track to haul 712 psgrs per day between Philadelphia & Pittsburgh. That's a 69% increase in the size of that market if USAirways carried nobody...and we know they probably are carrying a bunch too since they chopped their fares. Amazing what lowering the fare can do to stimulate a stagnant market.

The Chicago loads look real good, too. REAL good.

Take care!

ELP

 

[FWAAA]

I would not be surprised to see PIT-PHL develop into a 1,000+ daily pax market within a few months. Easily support a dozen 737s within a year.

 

[wnbubbleboy]

I would not be surprised to see PIT-PHL develop into a 1,000+ daily pax market within a few months. Easily support a dozen 737s within a year.

[post="266635"][/post]​

The PA Turnpike's new competition....WN.

 

[justaumechanic]

Just give it a little time..

US Airways and USA320 pilot will put the A330-300 on the PIT - PHL route and say that is a money maker...

Impressive loads for day 1.. The Southwest effect is taking off nicely.

US fare from PHL was 259 and Southwests was 59.. I bet US is now 59..

Lakewipe and Dr Bone are the cream of the Airline crop.. Top notch leadership.. They know airplanes and airline operations like Herb and Southwest know crop dusting!! Tops in the industry..

 

[skyflyr69]

Low fares? my arse. more like predatory. when will the gov't step in and stop this illegal predatory pricing by "luv" the airline that treated Muse Air so well........

:down:

 

[FWAAA]

Low fares? my arse. more like predatory. when will the gov't step in and stop this illegal predatory pricing by "luv" the airline that treated Muse Air so well........

:down:

[post="266721"][/post]​

Predatory? That's a good one!!

to WN! B)

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

Skyflyr:

#1 It isn't predatory if you make money at it.

#2 I would question as to just how much you actually know about what went on "behind the scenes" after the MC purchase

Southwest bought Muse when Muse came to them.....in an effort to try and salvage something for the investors. Mike had made a pretty bad mess of Muse and Lamar couldn't even resurrect it.

So Southwest bought it and they did some schedule coordination....took each other's tickets interchangeably....and started trying to put the MD80s on routes where they were more efficient....like the MIA-HOU-LAX runs and the MSY-LAS nonstops.

Well, it worked....for a while. Muse, under Southwest's aegis, started to post a little profit. Nothing that would shock the world...but for an airline that had been hemorrhaging money.....any profit was a welcome site.

Nobody has had an ASM cost like Muse's since and I doubt they ever will again. At one time the ASM was down around 4.5 or 4.6 cents. If the yield hadn;t been 5.9 cents life would have looked pretty good.

At any rate....Lorenzo and his crowd over at the other airport in Houston were not going to let Southwest develop this longer-haul subsidiary right under their collective noses. So they made a decision - kill Transtar by any means necessary.

Continental opening up pretty good size operations at Hobby and offering walk up fares HOU-LAX for $49 were all parts and parcels of CO's strategy. If you want to blame anyone for Muse's demise, blame Continental.

I can state unequivocally that if Muse/transtar had continued to eke out profits they'd still be in business today as a wholly owned subsidiary of Southwest Airlines. But you can't make money when your principal competitor is giving seats away for $49 from HOU-LAX (if you recall.....Muse/transtar was offering hourly service between the two).

When the profits went away, to be replaced by red ink again....a conscious decision was made to shut it down and recoup as much of the initial investment as possible. It wasn;t anything anybody relished doing, but it had to be done.

The Muse stockholders who held on to the Southwest stock they got in the transaction came out ahead. the folks who held the Muse equipment bonds (at 16 7/8%...another reason they weren't doing too well) got their money. In the end, it was a shame to see a class outfit with a good product go away. But the alternative was for Southwest to sit there and throw money at a losing proposition.

Southwest didn't take away good routes from Muse....they let them take the HOU-CA and HOU-Vegas stuff. The Florida routes were developing nicely...in fact, Southwest ultimately took those routes several yrs after MC disappeared.

I guess the moral of my story is - if you want to blame anyone for predatory competition and the destruction of Muse Air, place the blame where it belongs. Continental.

 

[AirplaneFan]

I would not be surprised to see PIT-PHL develop into a 1,000+ daily pax market within a few months. Easily support a dozen 737s within a year.

[post="266635"][/post]​

Here are the top 50 PHL O&D destinations (3Q2004 USDoT). What is striking is how low PIT is on the list and how high the one-way fare is between the two cities. It seems to reason that PIT should be able to rise to at least the same levels as RDU, PVD and MHT where SW lowered prices and saw O&D numbers go up dramatically.

CityST Passengers/Day One-wayFare LgstCarrier LgstMktShare
LgstOne-WayFare
Chicago, IL 3049.02 113.05 UA 27.04 136.89
Orlando, FL 2799.23 101.85 US 48.83 105.74
Atlanta, GA 2070.32 129.77 DL 62.47 135.08
Los Angeles, CA 2051.63 161.88 US 41.47 165.06
Boston, MA 1887.06 82.84 US 63.19 89.49
Las Vegas, NV 1839.34 137.06 US 49.44 140.92
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 1477.17 103.87 US 49.86 105.99
Raleigh/Durham, NC 1464.34 61.37 US 43.59 68.18
Tampa, FL 1409.45 104.79 US 54.66 107.48
San Francisco, CA 1226.63 221.22 US 41.97 216.97
Providence, RI 1092.93 57.39 WN 63.64 47.84
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 1032.06 247.49 AA 56.47 268.95
Denver, CO 1019.13 177.89 US 34.95 167.01
Houston, TX 976.3 157.07 CO 46.37 165.02
Manchester, NH 950 56.53 WN 62.92 46.02
Phoenix, AZ 935.86 153 HP 34.68 163.91
Seattle, WA 767.28 188.61 US 47.3 198.49
San Diego, CA 754.34 177.82 US 44.35 193.62
Minneapolis/St.Paul, MN 736.84 244.16 NW 52.38 288.82
West Palm Beach, FL 721.63 105.3 US 63.2 108.64
Detroit, MI 622.39 230.83 NW 62.29 246.07
St. Louis, MO 541.3 167.47 AA 56.82 172.15
New Orleans, LA 504.78 138.29 US 54.69 141.1
Nashville, TN 465.21 126.91 US 71.44 125.34
Miami, FL 426.08 148.79 AA 48.31 134.92
Jacksonville, FL 422.93 138.91 US 71.78 134.4
Pittsburgh, PA 421.84 265.9 US 86.96 272.51
Kansas City, MO 414.13 155.39 US 64.64 154.07
Indianapolis, IN 403.8 151.98 US 83.31 146.09
Milwaukee, WI 318.8 162.08 YX 45.07 175.48
Salt Lake City, UT 317.39 184.77 DL 75.41 183.11
Charlotte, NC 314.89 328.07 US 83.56 343.84
Ft. Myers, FL 297.17 141.02 US 77.9 139.7
Cincinnati, OH 266.63 225.99 DL 68.89 227.76
Portland, OR 255.65 211.41 UA 30.18 239.3
Columbus, OH 245.43 254.11 US 82.01 260.01
Cleveland, OH 244.78 277.49 US 49.15 258.87
Memphis, TN 214.23 217.43 NW 69.45 225.87
San Jose/Palo Alto, CA 208.15 191.2 UA 26.84 208.47
Sacramento, CA 205.1 186.21 HP 32.11 171.4
Austin, TX 204.45 209.78 AA 36.78 227.53
San Antonio, TX 202.82 192.51 AA 31.29 197.94
Santa Ana, CA 192.6 218.3 HP 34.59 181.37
Albuquerque, NM 179.45 180.48 CO 22.47 144.78
Dayton, OH 164.78 164.24 US 62.13 172.45
Louisville, KY 161.63 170.96 US 75.05 163.53
Oakland/Berkeley, CA 150.76 196.25 WN 34.31 153.54
Savannah, GA 149.02 137.04 US 51.05 137.95
Birmingham, AL 146.63 153.63 US 59.22 151.02
Ontario, CA 129.78 190.23 HP 35.76 183.56

 

[ClueByFour]

The PA Turnpike's new competition....WN.

[post="266654"][/post]​

Between gas and tolls, if one drives a car that gets less than 30mpg, it's probably a wash. I wish LUV was there when I still lived in PIT--can't tell you how many trips to PHL I drove that I would have just LUVed to fly had the price been the least bit sane.

 

[usairways85]

wouldn't be surprised to see WN take the lead in PHL-Chicago. WN will be up to 7 flts, where as UA has decreased its number of flts to around 10.

 

[FWAAA]

Within a few years, WN is likely to be flying 150 flights a day at PIT. Could even peak at more daily flights than at STL.

 

[luvn737s]

Here are the top 50 PHL O&D destinations (3Q2004 USDoT). What is striking is how low PIT is on the list and how high the one-way fare is between the two cities. It seems to reason that PIT should be able to rise to at least the same levels as RDU, PVD and MHT where SW lowered prices and saw O&D numbers go up dramatically.

CityST Passengers/Day One-wayFare LgstCarrier LgstMktShare
LgstOne-WayFare

Providence, RI 1092.93 57.39 WN 63.64 47.84
Manchester, NH 950 56.53 WN 62.92 46.02

Oakland/Berkeley, CA 150.76 196.25 WN 34.31 153.54

[post="266779"][/post]​

Oooh, WN's burning down the house in PHL! 65% LF in PIT and that's acceptable? I thought folks would be lining up out the door just to get on WN (or at least to get a window seat

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

If your BELF is somewhere around 61 or 62 and on your very first day...a Wednesday at that...you run 65.3%.....then most sane and sensible people would be thrilled. It's called money in the bank. Black ink.

Oh, sorry, it slipped my mind....you probably have very little experience with that.

 

[FWAAA]

Oooh, WN's burning down the house in PHL! 65% LF in PIT and that's acceptable? I thought folks would be lining up out the door just to get on WN (or at least to get a window seat

[post="266945"][/post]​

Load factors have nothing to do with profitability. WN's LF was the lowest of any major in Q1 yet made lots more money.

 

[luvn737s]

If your BELF is somewhere around 61 or 62 and on your very first day...a Wednesday at that...you run 65.3%.....then most sane and sensible people would be thrilled. It's called money in the bank. Black ink.

Oh, sorry, it slipped my mind....you probably have very little experience with that.

[post="266947"][/post]​

Wait a second. WN has an hour long commercial on A&E every week, a glowing article in almost every paper and magazine everytime the word "airline" is mentioned and commercial sponsorships out the wazoo yet they leave with 1/3 of the seats empty?? And they do this almost everywhere they go? What else can they do?

That's right. Worry.