Weekly Petroleum Update For Week Ending 3/25/05

BoeingBoy

Veteran
Nov 9, 2003
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It's another Wednesday, and the Weekly Petroleum Status Report is out.

Some of you will have noticed that crude prices are down today on the report that crude stockpiles were up last week - I think one report said they're the highest since 2002.

The Status Report is otherwise pretty much a repeat of last weeks. Some excerpts:

"U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ending March 25, up 222,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 91.1 percent of their operable capacity last week."

"Distillate fuel production increased slightly last week, averaging 3.9 million barrels per day."

"U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 10.6 million barrels per day last week, up 298,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 10.2 million barrels per day, which is 288,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year."

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 314.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year."

"Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.7 million barrels per day, or 2.3 percent more than averaged over the same period last year."

"Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 10.8 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. "

Now for some numbers:

Jet fuel stocks increased 4.2% year over year, but were down 3.1% from the previous week.

Domestic production of jet fuel for each of the 4 consecutive weeks ending 3/25 were:
Week ending 3/04 - 41.2 thousand bbls
Week ending 3/11 - 39.4
Week ending 3/18 - 38.5
Week ending 3/25 - 37.3

Imports of jet fuel for each of the 4 consecutive weeks ending 3/25 were:
Week ending 3/04 - 63 thousand bbls
Week ending 3/11 - 77
Week ending 3/18 - 88
Week ending 3/25 - 145

Jet fuel supplied for each of the 4 consecutive weeks ending 3/25 were:
Week ending 3/04 - 1,673 thousand bbls
Week ending 3/11 - 1,849
Week ending 3/18 - 1,737
Week ending 3/25 - 1,712

On 3/24 (the 25th was a holiday), spot prices for jet fuel were:
New York Harbor $1.6250
Gulf Coast $1.5925
Los Angeles $1.7626

On 3/24, crude prices per bbl were:
WTI Cushing $49.85 (WTI dropped the most on news of the BP refinery explosion)
Brent $52.35

As usual, here are today's crude prices for comparison (as I write this, not closing):
WTI Cushing $53.15
Brent $50.24
NYMEX $52.75

Lastly, the immediate effects of the BP refinery explosion on prices.

Crude closing prices for the day before and day of the explosion:
WTI Cushing $55.95 $49.43
Brent $55.39 $51.52

Jet fuel spot prices for the same two days:
New York Harbor $1.6075 $1.6250
Gulf Coast $1.5938 $1.6075
Los Angeles $$1.7500 $1.7342 (but was $176.26 the following day)

Jim
 
That is interesting, because gas at the pumps in my town are at an all time high.
 
700UW said:
That is interesting, because gas at the pumps in my town are at an all time high.
[post="259397"][/post]​
Why should that come as a surprise? It takes a while for the effects to get downstream.
 
I got so ticked off about it, I stopped checking. Every spike up last year, the pump prices went up 90% of the time withen 2 days (I would check 7 gas stations, different companies). But when prices per barrel spiked down, The opposite did not happen. I just refuse to believe that all of this is done in a logical, or fair manner. But our Govt allows it to happen, no matter what party is in power.
 
Check Unleaded Gasoline futures. They are running around $1.55 per gallon. Add another $.40 to $.50 in taxes and you are at around $2.00.
The stations have to make some revenue off of gasoline.
 
CNBC's Ted David on Morning Call is now suggesting that the government may want to investigate NYMEX crude oil price manipulation because of today's Goldman Sachs crude oil call. Goldman Sachs is the largest NYMEX crude oil trader, has refused public comment on today's call, and refused to be interviewed on CNBC.

David is also interviewing floor traders publicly trying to get traders to publicly comment on illegal price manipulation.

For information on the Goldman Sachs comment click here

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
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Unfortunately, that's of little solice after that buck 60-something fuel has gone out the tailpipe.

Jim
 
BoeingBoy said:
This from Bloomberg this morning:

Oil Jumps, Fuel Prices Reach Records on U.S. Refining Concern

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose, heading for its third- biggest quarterly gain this decade, and gasoline and heating-oil futures soared to records on concern that U.S. refineries can't make enough fuels from surging crude supplies.

Jim
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Yup, something ain't right. A surge in crude supply so the price goes up?... I haven't checked, but I'd imagine that the slit between WTI and the heavy oils may have split. Maybe there is plenty of "heavy" oils, but a shortage of the easier to refine light sweet's that make up the benchmarks
 
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It appears there are two factors at work - Goldman Sachs forecast of a "super spike" in crude prices and concerns about demand for refined products outstripping refinery capacity.

My gut feeling is that the GS forecast is bunk at the upper end ($105/bbl) - unless there is a significant supply disruption for crude. Obviously, if terrorists could set fire to every oil well in Saudi Arabia, we could see those prices.

The other factor - refining capacity - is more reasonable to me. You can have a gazillion barrels of crude supply but if you can't refine it what good does it do. Of course, the crude price affects refined product prices - lower cost of raw materials should translate to lower cost of finished product. But what could happen is that the spread between crude prices and refined product prices could increase and offset some of any drop in crude prices.

Jim
 
Global Jet Fuel Prices
(midpoint)
as of March 31

NY Jet Barge
163.48 cts per gallon

Chicago Jet
163.28 cts per gallon

West Coast (LA) Jet
180.50 cts per gallon

European: Rotterdam Barges Jet
168.58 cts per gallon

Asia/Pacific: Singapore Kero
165.20 cts per gallon
 
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And it looks like crude is going to close up today....

NYMEX - $57.27 (up $1.87)
WTI - $57.27 (up $1.87)
Brent - $55.14 (up $2.09)
IPE $56.51 (up $2.22)

Still waiting for that "downward trend"......(maybe the butler took the "candlestick" charts and used them to commit the murder in the drawing room!)

Jim
 

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