BoeingBoy
Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 16,512
- Reaction score
- 5,865
This week's report by the EIA says:
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending May 6, down 1.7% from the same week last year. However, average daily inputs for the year so far are up 1.4% from last year.
Refineries operated at 91.8 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Despite the slight decline in refinery inputs, gasoline production increased last week, averaging nearly 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production rose slightly compared to the previous week, averaging nearly 4.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, down 267,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Net imports were up 1.4% over the same week last year and the daily average so far this year is up 3.8% from last year.
Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.2 million barrels per day, which is 99,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the SPR) rose by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 329.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and the highest since the end of March 2002.
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.4 million barrels per day, or 1.1 percent more than averaged over the same period last year.
Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 5.0 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Imports of kerosene-type jet fuel were 39.9 million bbls for the week, which is 1% less than the previous week but 12.1% above the same week a year ago.
Now for jet fuel spot prices on 5/6/05 and (4/29/05):
NY Harbor $1.5113 ($1.4740)
Gulf Coast $1.5038 ($1.4690)
Los Angeles $1.6400 ($1.6700)
For context, here are spot crude prices on 5/6/05 and (4/29/05):
WTI Cushing $51.30 ($49.20)
Brent $49.70 ($50.61)
For comparison, today's crude prices are (1:15 PM Bloomberg quotes):
WTI Cushing $51.60
Dated Brent $48.80
NYMEX $51.20
Finally, some thoughts....
One would expect the current high domestic stockpiles of crude, added to pretty good stockpiles of gasoline, to exert significant downward pressure on crude prices. Reality, at least for the last two weeks, has been decidedly different with crude trading in a fairly narrow range - at least compared to the fluctuations over the previous 6 months or so.
It's pure speculation on my part, but part of the reason we haven't seen any significant drops may be the longer view.
The IAE issued their monthly Oil Market Report this morning (Paris time) and projects that crude supply and demand will run neck & neck this year at just over 84 million bbls per day average. While more supply can (and in some cases is planned) to come on line, a lot of that extra is so-called "sour" crude - meaning higher sulfur content and thus more expensive to turn into highly refined products like low-sulfur content gasoline. In short, all crude is not created equal.
Since the widely published crude prices (NYMEX, WTI, Brent) are "light sweet" crudes, their price may continue to be relatively high and within a fairly narrow range - unless either supply or refinery disruptions cause larger fluctuations.
OK, that ends my 2 cents worth.....
Jim
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending May 6, down 1.7% from the same week last year. However, average daily inputs for the year so far are up 1.4% from last year.
Refineries operated at 91.8 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Despite the slight decline in refinery inputs, gasoline production increased last week, averaging nearly 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production rose slightly compared to the previous week, averaging nearly 4.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, down 267,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Net imports were up 1.4% over the same week last year and the daily average so far this year is up 3.8% from last year.
Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.2 million barrels per day, which is 99,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the SPR) rose by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 329.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and the highest since the end of March 2002.
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.4 million barrels per day, or 1.1 percent more than averaged over the same period last year.
Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 5.0 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Imports of kerosene-type jet fuel were 39.9 million bbls for the week, which is 1% less than the previous week but 12.1% above the same week a year ago.
Now for jet fuel spot prices on 5/6/05 and (4/29/05):
NY Harbor $1.5113 ($1.4740)
Gulf Coast $1.5038 ($1.4690)
Los Angeles $1.6400 ($1.6700)
For context, here are spot crude prices on 5/6/05 and (4/29/05):
WTI Cushing $51.30 ($49.20)
Brent $49.70 ($50.61)
For comparison, today's crude prices are (1:15 PM Bloomberg quotes):
WTI Cushing $51.60
Dated Brent $48.80
NYMEX $51.20
Finally, some thoughts....
One would expect the current high domestic stockpiles of crude, added to pretty good stockpiles of gasoline, to exert significant downward pressure on crude prices. Reality, at least for the last two weeks, has been decidedly different with crude trading in a fairly narrow range - at least compared to the fluctuations over the previous 6 months or so.
It's pure speculation on my part, but part of the reason we haven't seen any significant drops may be the longer view.
The IAE issued their monthly Oil Market Report this morning (Paris time) and projects that crude supply and demand will run neck & neck this year at just over 84 million bbls per day average. While more supply can (and in some cases is planned) to come on line, a lot of that extra is so-called "sour" crude - meaning higher sulfur content and thus more expensive to turn into highly refined products like low-sulfur content gasoline. In short, all crude is not created equal.
Since the widely published crude prices (NYMEX, WTI, Brent) are "light sweet" crudes, their price may continue to be relatively high and within a fairly narrow range - unless either supply or refinery disruptions cause larger fluctuations.
OK, that ends my 2 cents worth.....
Jim
