Us Airline Third Quarter Looking Better And Better

[USA320Pilot]

US airline third quarter looking better and better

NEW YORK (Air Transport World) - UBS Warburg analyst Samuel Buttrick has raised his operating profit forecast 33% for the US airline industry's third quarter ended Sept. 30.

Buttrick previously forecast an operating profit of $400 million for the group; he now estimates the industry will earn $600 million on "solid summer RASM gains and lower labor costs" partly offset by continued high fuel prices. At the same time, he reduced his net loss forecast from $400 million to $200 million while his full-year net loss estimate was trimmed to $5.8 billion from $6.2 billion.
Among carriers expected to report profits for the period are Alaska Air Group, America West, Continental, AirTran, JetBlue and Southwest. Airlines begin reporting results this week.

 

[Twicebaked]

US Airways will NEVER show a profit. Even if there is a profit Uncle Dave will tell you that..."the only reason is"....blah blah blah

 

[Andre1980]

It is good to see good news for a change other than the gloom and doom in the industry and I hope It remains this way. US Airways will do well and post less losses than a year a go but David has said previously that US may probably do the worst when compared to its network bretheren thanks to Hurricane Isabel and the powere outage and the most important cause of this is fact that US Airways route network concentrates more on the East of the United States. I hope you all get better results in the next quater though. TC

 

[diogenes]

U just slays me with 'the dog ate my homework!' Remember when Hugo got blamed for the losses? Do hurricanes stalk U?

Isabel primarily impacted the NC Outer Banks and points north. U is no longer the major carrier at some of those airports (ORF, BWI) and while DCA/PHL was impacted, so was IAD for UA.

If the margins are so thin, one weather event brings down the house of cards, U should pulll out of the NE, where nasty winters occur annually.

Here'd be a refreshing statement. "Even though we screwed customers, contractors, vendors, employees, local, state and federal governments out of billions via the bankruptcy code, we were still unable to break even, BECAUSE we're bean counters, not operators."

 

[deelmakur]

I enjoy tweaking managment in these threads, but I also hope the company survives. For those of us regularly flying the line,you, the front line employees, provide an excellent product, working with the tools they give you, like plastic cups, overpriced meals for sale, minijets on mainline routes, uncompetitive fares, reduced services, and 30 minute connex in a dump like PHL (the poster child for saturated airports). Your management has staked the company's survival on a two pronged theory. One is sizing the aircraft to their costs, and the other is to abandon (or shift to codeshare) what they perceive to be money losing routes.Those of you who actually board these flights, or work them, must see anecdotal evidence of the result of this. As a mere passenger, I note that shrinking the aircraft from a mainline jet to an RJ seems to result in fewer bookings. I don't want to fly them. Next week, I needed to go from Atlanta to PHL. Just about everything is an RJ. I gave the ticket to another carrier. This past weekend, I needed to go from New York to Buffalo, and back. I'm a US1, and I get treated well by US. When I went to book, my choice was a noisy Dash 8, or an A320 on JetBlue, for a third the cost (and free TV thrown in). It was not a tough decision. As I was using the USAir Club at BUF on Sunday, prior to my JB departure, I got talking to one of the desk agents. I think I said something like "what's a US 1 doing flying a bread and butter route like that on JetBlue"? Her answer. " Lots of our regulars are doing it. We asked them for bigger planes." 3rd quarter will be very interesting, indeed.

 

[delldude]

pwease tell me ,what is a FUD?

 

[allegheny1]

According to a consortium of airline analysts interviewed on cnbc and cnn
immediately after Isabel the concensus was......

Airlines typically plan for a certain number of disruptions and the effects of
the huricane would be minimal....maybe 1 or 2 cents per share to the bottom
line.

Could it be that we plan only for a blue skies operation. Judging the complete
lack of resources ( reserve crews ) during bad weather / atc delay programs
my guess is...no my absolute knowledge is....this is true.

Our senior management has shown NO operational expertise since taking over
in March of 2002. They rely on skewed statistics prepared by a group of
middle managers who have adopted a lie,cheat,and steal mentality to prove
their self worth and protect their positions in the power base.

Operationaly speaking....you could drop these mba s blindfolded into a
super walmart///remove the blndfolds///and they could not find an exit
on their own.

regards

 

[airlineorphan]

pwease tell me ,what is a FUD?

Delldude,

FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt

It is a term for any strategy designed to make people uncertain about the future of something. Ususally it is directed at a competitor to create uncetainty amongst customers about the wisdom of going with a competitor's products by sowing uncertainty about that competitor's future or at least that competitor's commitment to future provision of that product line.

In the case of Capt. Munn's usage, he is talking about Mr. Siegel's efforts to sow FUD about the future of US Airways itself to scare the begeezus out of employees. As we all know, Mr. Siegel's FUD has doesn't quite have the same mojo that it once did and it is clear to pretty much everyone that this management is FUBAR in its daily and longterm operations planning, which continue to produce the same SNAFU results.

Hope that helps!

In solidarity,
Airlineorphan

 

[US2]

I enjoy tweaking managment in these threads, but I also hope the company survives. For those of us regularly flying the line,you, the front line employees, provide an excellent product, working with the tools they give you, like plastic cups, overpriced meals for sale, minijets on mainline routes, uncompetitive fares, reduced services, and 30 minute connex in a dump like PHL (the poster child for saturated airports). Your management has staked the company's survival on a two pronged theory. One is sizing the aircraft to their costs, and the other is to abandon (or shift to codeshare) what they perceive to be money losing routes.Those of you who actually board these flights, or work them, must see anecdotal evidence of the result of this. As a mere passenger, I note that shrinking the aircraft from a mainline jet to an RJ seems to result in fewer bookings. I don't want to fly them. Next week, I needed to go from Atlanta to PHL. Just about everything is an RJ. I gave the ticket to another carrier. This past weekend, I needed to go from New York to Buffalo, and back. I'm a US1, and I get treated well by US. When I went to book, my choice was a noisy Dash 8, or an A320 on JetBlue, for a third the cost (and free TV thrown in). It was not a tough decision. As I was using the USAir Club at BUF on Sunday, prior to my JB departure, I got talking to one of the desk agents. I think I said something like "what's a US 1 doing flying a bread and butter route like that on JetBlue"? Her answer. " Lots of our regulars are doing it. We asked them for bigger planes." 3rd quarter will be very interesting, indeed.

I have the exact same predicament with some intra-New York state travel coming up based out of the City and because of a vast fare differential, Jet Blue will get my business. US wants 535 or so for a r/t same day walk-up on a dash 8 or RJ from NYC to SYR, ROC and BUF versus a 210 walk-up r/t on a new JB Airbus. I'd prefer to stick with US, but I cannot justify billing this kind of fare to a client on a project where the budget is an issue. Even if it budget weren't an issue, I'd still have reservations about it. Oddly, ALB is the most expensive of all, for a 150 mile flight each way on a Beech 1900, they want 547 round trip.

This is all a business strategy that I can't figure out. True, LGA is easier to navigate than JFK, but really not worth an extra 300+ dollars. US has more flights, but the current JB schedule is fine for same-day trips as well. This all seems like a case where US is pricing itself out of a market that it should be fighting like hell to defend.

 

[PITbull]

It is interesting that management takes the position that the Blackout and hurricane had such a huge effect on U's "bottom line", but JetBlue, who is based in JFK, who was also effected by the black out and hurricane of late, will show no real effect to their "bottom line".

So I need to pose these questions to U management, are you referring to a different "black out" and hurricane then these other carriers had experienced and reported? Does the paradigm or present business model allow for irrigular operations, or is this question too retorical?

 

[oldiebutgoody]

It is interesting that management takes the position that the Blackout and hurricane had such a huge effect on U's "bottom line", but JetBlue, who is based in JFK, who was also effected by the black out and hurricane of late, will show no real effect to their "bottom line".

So I need to pose these questions to U management, are you referring to a different "black out" and hurricane then these other carriers had experienced and reported? Does the paradigm or present business model allow for irrigular operations, or is this question too retorical?

I think the issue is that they had to blame something. It sure couldn't be THEIR fault!

 

[delldude]

Delldude,

FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt

It is a term for any strategy designed to make people uncertain about the future of something. Ususally it is directed at a competitor to create uncetainty amongst customers about the wisdom of going with a competitor's products by sowing uncertainty about that competitor's future or at least that competitor's commitment to future provision of that product line.

In the case of Capt. Munn's usage, he is talking about Mr. Siegel's efforts to sow FUD about the future of US Airways itself to scare the begeezus out of employees. As we all know, Mr. Siegel's FUD has doesn't quite have the same mojo that it once did and it is clear to pretty much everyone that this management is FUBAR in its daily and longterm operations planning, which continue to produce the same SNAFU results.

Hope that helps!

In solidarity,
Airlineorphan

thank you kindly sir....also in solidarity,
delldude

 

[ITRADE]

It is interesting that management takes the position that the Blackout and hurricane had such a huge effect on U's "bottom line", but JetBlue, who is based in JFK, who was also effected by the black out and hurricane of late, will show no real effect to their "bottom line".

So I need to pose these questions to U management, are you referring to a different "black out" and hurricane then these other carriers had experienced and reported? Does the paradigm or present business model allow for irrigular operations, or is this question too retorical?

You're joking, right???

With the exception of maybe the 10 flights into and out of IAD, JB did not experience a single direct hit on any of its operations. That represents probably about 3% of its operations. Compare that to DCA which was wiped out, RDU which was wiped out, ORF which was wiped out, and all the other airports in between and to the side (basically everything from ILM in the south to PIT in the north).

I think about 400-500 flights were cancelled. That's a bit more significant than what JB - hubbed at JFK and well to the north and east of the system experienced.

 

[USFlyer]

CO and NW both turned a profit. Does anyone remember, from the business plan submitted to the ATSB, when US was projecting a profit? I know 2003 was out, and I seem to recall 2004 was projected to be break even.

 

[PITbull]

I believe the qualifying ATSB "business plan" submitted projected a third quarter 2004 profit for U.