This Week’s Interesting News

[LavMan]

Now besides being a pilot and a financial analyst he is a BK judge or lawyer:


Meanwhile, US has contingency plans in place should UA fail and as I have said before, maybe the only way UA can get its POR approved by the court is for a UCT or ICT to occur.

Man someone is really full of themselves now. Maybe Tilton flew on US Airways Shuttle in the jump seat recently.

 

[MarkMyWords]

Thanks for the info Chip. I appreciate the info and your prospective.

 

[scot]

Once again, everyone keep the personal attacks to themselves. If you''ve been on here any length of time, you know how someone posts and whether you want to read it or not. If you are not a fan of someone or their posts, skip them. There is no need to attack the poster. If you want to rebut their posting, do so, but knock off the rest of the b.s.
Thanks.
Scot

 

[USA320Pilot]

Lav,

As I have said, I did not enter into my calculus UA’s underfunded pension crisis, but this obviously adds to the complexity of the Chicago-based airline’s formal reorganization. The FOMC continues to cut interest rates, which will aggravate an already bad pension situation and could neutralize union defined benefit retirement concessions. This is exactly what happened to US ALPA.

According to the Rocky Mountain News, "On Dec. 31, United had only 49.7 percent of its nearly $12.7 billion in pension obligations funded."

Lav, this is a major, major hurdle to clear and complicates an already difficult reorganization.

Best regards,

Chip

 

[Cosmo]

----------------
On 7/7/2003 10:54:06 AM Chip Munn wrote:

According to the Rocky Mountain News, "On Dec. 31, United had only 49.7 percent of its nearly $12.7 billion in pension obligations funded.&quot
----------------​

Chip, rather than simply quoting a newspaper article that indicates what UA''s pension underfunding was at the end of last year, do you have any comments on the points made by 767jetz and Busdrvr yesterday that the UA pension outlook changed (improved?) significantly as of July 1 due to changes in UA''s employment totals, salary levels and pension multipliers, among other things? Indeed, do you think that these differences, not just for pilots but for all employees, materially changes UA''s pension obligation amount and thus any pension underfunding?

 

[Cosmo]

To help get this back on the topic of "This Week''s Interesting News," there was an article in today''s Pittsburgh Business Times that had a fairly gloomy tone regarding US Airways'' outlook. Of course, that tone may be influenced by the expected change in the carrier''s level of operations (especially mainline) at PIT.

Here''s the article.

 

[Fly]

US Airways traffic down, outlook gloomy

and

United Airlines Continues Operational Excellence

 

[Borescope]

----------------
On 7/7/2003 11:16:26 AM Cosmo wrote:

----------------

Chip, rather than simply quoting a newspaper article that indicates what UA''s pension underfunding was at the end of last year, do you have any comments on the points made by 767jetz and Busdrvr yesterday that the UA pension outlook changed (improved?) significantly as of July 1 due to changes in UA''s employment totals, salary levels and pension multipliers, among other things? Indeed, do you think that these differences, not just for pilots but for all employees, materially changes UA''s pension obligation amount and thus any pension underfunding?

----------------​

Cosmo,
The pension underfunding was the amount owed "before" the pay cuts. All the new agreements do is lower the "future" obligations the company will have to put in. They still owe the underfunded amount , which changes with market conditions, which today are up. Anyone who is going to help us out of BK would be crazy not to ask the company to take care of the underfunding before we come out. If I was to provide equity (in my dreams) I would want the pensions ended also. Why would anyone, as an investor, want to pay a pension to someone that they would get nothing from after that person retires, when they have the opportunity to get rid of the 6+ Billion underfunded pension now through the legal system? I think you will see this come to light right before we exit BK so as not to upset the apple cart during the summer travel season.

 

[USFlyer]

Remember, most of the "fun" at U after the initial round of concessions started once RSA got involved (e.g., second round of concessions, pension termination, threats of liquidation, etc.). Expect more upheaval when UAL finds an equity sponsor who begins demanding more cuts. I think most people thought U was doing semi-ok until RSA -- who was supposedly labor friendly -- started threatening to pull funding.

 

[USA320Pilot]

I have taken some heat from UA employees and had sarcastic posts made by Ukridge in response to information I have posted about US' business partner, but today the USA Today published a revealing article that can be read at [url="http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2003-07-07-ual_x.htm"]http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2003-07-07-ual_x.htm[/URL].

The newspaper reported United parent UAL says in a motion filed Thursday that 16% of its roughly 1,100 information services (IS) employees retired or left for better-paying jobs in the first half of this year. It's proposing to give 20% retention bonuses to up to 600 technical employees who stay in their jobs at least six months past UAL's emergence from bankruptcy court protection.


"We've got a serious brain drain," says UAL spokesman Jeff Green. "More IS people left in the first quarter of this year than all of last year."
The court filing sheds light on employee turmoil at UAL. Earlier this year, the airline's ability to survive was questioned by many industry experts and even the airline itself. A UAL court filing on the eve of the Iraq war suggested the falloff in passengers during a war could force liquidation. Then came the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). United, which flies to Asia, saw many nearly empty planes.
But even now, with the war and virus scare over and UAL officials talking publicly about exiting Chapter 11, three to five computer specialists leave every week, Green says.
The filing says exit surveys with departing workers reveal UAL's financial instability and possible future pay cuts are leading reasons.
UAL's attrition rate appears to be unique to its circumstances. Gary Beach, publisher of CIO, a trade magazine for corporate computer managers, says companies aren't reporting a shortage of qualified job applicants that would explain UAL's attrition.
Chip asks: For those naysayers, if UA did not face a fragmentation, or even a liquidation (which I do not believe will occur), than even with record load factors, why would UA's employees be resigning from the company that management said was a "serious brain drain"?

Also noteworthy, UA vice president of flight operations Captain Steve Forte told ALPA the company's 2004 business plan calls for 6,200 active line pilots in 2004. Who first made that comment public on this website? I'm not trying to be the bearer of bad news or a "I told you so...", but I believe it's important for the record to be set straight.

Best regards,

Chip

 

[767jetz]

----------------
On 7/8/2003 12:16:31 PM Chip Munn wrote:



Also noteworthy, UA vice president of flight operations Captain Steve Forte told ALPA the company's 2004 business plan calls for 6,200 active line pilots in 2004. Who first made that comment public on this website? I'm not trying to be the bearer of bad news or a "I told you so...", but I believe it's important for the record to be set straight.

----------------

Don't be so quick to pat yourself on the back, Chipster.

The 6000 number was floated around a long time ago, and in fact I believe it was mentioned on the UA board during your prolonged absence. That number was a supposed to be 6000 TOTAL pilots, and that was if UA pulled down significantly more flying. This new # is 6200 or so ACTIVE pilots, which is actually about 7000 to 7100 total pilots on the seniortity list. That would bring us back to December 1997. This is based on projected block hours, retirements, and the new contract, which were all unknown variables when the first 6000 TOTAL number was theorized.

My point is that the 6000 number you refer to in your "I told you so" comment is an old assumption, and not related to the new information claiming 7100 pilots.

By the way, when was the junior man at US hired? Isn't it around 1988?
​

 

[Seatacus]

I thought you said this was "interesting" news. Yawn..........

 

[USA320Pilot]

What's interesting is how some UA employees attempt to "throw stones" at another person or company because they do not like the message and become emotional. The purpose behind this thread was to discuss interesting news surrounding US, which has merit in regard to UA because of the alliance. However, the UA employees virtually only visit the US board to dispute my comments and then attempt to dominate the thread. If my comments lacked merit, than why would the UA employees have so much passion and venom towards my posts?

I find this UA attempt to spar, take jabs, and to shoot the messenger to be an interesting study of human behavior, which I can somewhat understand because of their UA situation. But, under no circumstances can I understand the obvious disrespect and anger.

Regardless, the UA pension issue is a potential time bomb waiting to go off and with fund market values continuing to decline, it's likely previous UA union concessions will not be enough to save their DB plans. Then what?

Best regards,

Chip

 

[W:EXCH:INVOL]

Will next week''s news be "unique"?

INVOL

 

[767jetz]

----------------
On 7/9/2003 150 AM Chip Munn wrote:

If my comments lacked merit, than why would the UA employees have so much passion and venom towards my posts?


----------------​

I think the answer to this lies within the question. Must we spell it out for you? It is BECAUSE your comments lack merrit that it stirs so much passion and venom. Most normal people feel passionately when misinformation and half-truths are spread about something or someone they care about.

Duh!!??