This Week’s Interesting News

[A320 Driver]

It doesn''t take long for everyone to get on the "beat up on Chip" bandwagon.
Lighten up folks! Chip''s entitled to his opinion just like everyone else.

A320 Driver


GIVE IT BACK!!!!!

 

[USHenry]

I don''t get it either. Chip makes us think. He gives us information and makes us think. And you guys just love to beat up on him. Even though he doesn''t insult any of you, instead of having a decent debate on the issues you insult him personally. A lot of us would be interested in seeing a good detailed discussion on both sides of view. The way I see it, there''s a good detailed discussion from Chip''s point of view only, most of the rest of this thread is boring and unoriginal personal insults.

 

[cavalier]

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On 7/5/2003 1109 PM 767jetz wrote:

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On 7/5/2003 8:40:38 PM cavalier wrote:



I listened to it, Chip. He speaks plainly and concise and from what I heard, as per a new IRS rule they are dumping the pension funds just like they did to U''s pilots


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THERE IS NO MENTION OF TERMINATING ANYONE"S PENSION!!

Tilton talks about the canceling of the ESOP. It is stock that is close to worthless anyway. There is no suprise here.


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You are the only one who replied, thank you.

This is just like that program we were all required to attend where information at the front of the line changed completely as it went down the line.

People are so focused on their own thoughts and beliefs the truth becomes blurred.

We at U signed contracts that the company wants to break, people start to believe those contracts will be broken and don''t even lift a finger to stop it from happening!

As far as the UAL pension, IMO, short of a miracle they too will follow U pilots path and lose their pension fund too, believing otherwise is not facing reality.

 

[MarkMyWords]

Chip or those in the know, I have a question for you.

Let''s say, for arguements sake, that UAL does end up liquidating. Since our business plan calls for substantial benefits from the code share agreement, if they liquidate would this then trigger a default in our ATSB loan because we would no longer realize the benefits of the code share? Could the ATSB come back and take their money?

Also, I found this quote very interesting to the nay sayers that contend that the industry has suddenly healed itself and everything is great again because load factors are up. "Gary Kelly, chief financial officer of Southwest Airlines, the world''s most profitable carrier, gave a lukewarm appraisal of summer bookings. "We''ve got some heavy travel periods during the summer, which is what we expect," he said. "It shouldn''t suggest to you that things have dramatically improved. They have not. But they have not gotten worse."

Even WN''s CFO agrees that things have leveled off, but they have not improved dramatically.

 

[767jetz]

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On 7/6/2003 8:25:20 AM cavalier wrote:




As far as the UAL pension, IMO, short of a miracle they too will follow U pilots path and lose their pension fund too, believing otherwise is not facing reality.
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I do agree that any benefit, from pay to work rules to pension, is at risk in this environment. But I disagree that losing the pension is a forgone conclusion, just because it happened to the US pilots.

The changes to UAL's pension are DRASTIC. On July 1st the pension liability decreased significantly. In some circles it has been said that our pension went from under funded to adequately funded, or even over funded, OVERNIGHT.

But as with all things, we'll just have to wait and see. This is just IMHO.​

 

[iflyjetz]

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On 7/6/2003 7:40:07 AM USHenry wrote:
I don''t get it either. Chip makes us think. He gives us information and makes us think. And you guys just love to beat up on him. Even though he doesn''t insult any of you, instead of having a decent debate on the issues you insult him personally. A lot of us would be interested in seeing a good detailed discussion on both sides of view. The way I see it, there''s a good detailed discussion from Chip''s point of view only, most of the rest of this thread is boring and unoriginal personal insults.
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This is the SAME Chip who said UAL''s acquisition of U at $60/share was a slam-dunk, based on public and private information that he had.

How often does one get to cry wolf before the villagers stop running to his aid?

 

[A320Fan]

Everyone,

The thread title stated “This Week’s Interesting Newsâ€￾, however every reply has been either a comment from a Chip supporter or a Chip basher. I am continually getting annoyed that every time I read a thread that Chip starts, I end up wasting my time hoping there is valid discussion instead of the rant I have become accustom to. I do not want to see UAL fail, just like I do not want to see any airline fail, as I love the industry and don’t want to see people out of work and so forth.


For those who do not like what Chip has to say and know what he is going to say or post, don’t read it. In case no one has told, you are free to choose what you read or do not read on usaviation.com. If you choose to read it, please reply in a different thread so that others and myself do not have to waste our time sorting through childish rant, or just don’t reply. If you hadn’t noticed, your replies to Chip have changed nothing with regards to what or how he posts.

I wish everyone on this board the best and happy end to the weekend.

Regards,

A320Fan

P.S. Moderator, how about a forum just pertaining to Chip.

 

[cavalier]

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On 7/6/2003 9:59:11 AM 767jetz wrote:

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On 7/6/2003 8:25:20 AM cavalier wrote:




As far as the UAL pension, IMO, short of a miracle they too will follow U pilots path and lose their pension fund too, believing otherwise is not facing reality.
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I do agree that any benefit, from pay to work rules to pension, is at risk in this environment. But I disagree that losing the pension is a forgone conclusion, just because it happened to the US pilots.

The changes to UAL''s pension are DRASTIC. On July 1st the pension liability decreased significantly. In some circles it has been said that our pension went from under funded to adequately funded, or even over funded, OVERNIGHT.

But as with all things, we''ll just have to wait and see. This is just IMHO.​

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I sincerely hope they don''t touch UAL pensions, I know how I would feel, and outraged would be an understatement. Trouble is, it seems the domino effect is in play with the airlines, UAL farms out maintenance and the other say they too must follow, U crabs pilots pension everyone else must follow suit.
The point I am trying to make to as many people as I can is this: Any working man or women in this country is at the mercy of Corporate America, because we let them by sitting on our tuffs and saying things like: Oh, it’s real shame too bad things have to be like this, people loosing their jobs, pensions, and benefits on and on. Well things don’t have to be like this! Look at France for example where they shut the entire country down until a positive and reasonable outcome is accomplished. Sitting idly around while being crushed by the few and powerful who run Corporate America is what we are letting happen. If we as a labor force united across the board, even using civil unrest if necessary, then the government would have to step in and act, bringing about a reasonable compromise. Look around, everywhere people are losing everything they worked their entire life for including their jobs!. We all pay union dues, we still have a voice, we still have strength, but only if we unite totally across the board and stop the madness. We are fast becoming a country of the very rich and the working poor, rich people don’t need unions and if you’re poor whether you employed or not, then why are unions necessary!

 

[WO/drone]

I hope that UAL dosen''t degrade their pilots'' pentions, but it may happen. With the stock market down, interest rates low, and the move toward self funded plans, ours is not the only industry looking at a different future. Remember not too long ago there was a shortage of personell in the aviation feilds, pilots, maintenace technicians, service, now we are seeing again the big slump. Like 1980 we are going to lose more jobs, people are going to leave the field and not come back, then there will be a shortage again, will there be anyone to fill these future positions? Will enough of us, the current airline employees, be able to stay untill we are appreciated again? After 24+ years in aviation, if I get pushed out I cannot say I will stay in the field. We are taking financial losses that will not be made up by going to another carrier and starting from the bottom. Like Chip these are some of my feelings and observations. I enjoy most of the posts, even other airlines. Nobody makes me read anything, my emotions are responsible to only me. good luck to everyone.

 

[Busdrvr]

"Meanwhile, it’s come to my attention UA chief executive officer Glenn Tilton is now echoing many of my thoughts on complexity and press to test issues I described in the threads listed above."

A320,
It's statements like this that makes folks despise Chips rhetoric. i defy you to listen to glenns weekly message and post a specific statement on his part that in ANY way backs up ANY of Chip's outlandish "theories". We post here simply because we have an interest in aviation and we can't keep our mouths shut when we see flagrantly and intentially false information passed on as the truth. There are pax, some who post and some who don't, who read these posts. In these days, when every dollar of pax revenue is important, would you want to lose any pax based on false info posted by a basher of your airline without any rebuttle? What's even more comical, is Chip posts a topic called "This weeks interesting news" and doesn't even MENTION that Dave cooked the books to have justification to screw U's retirees, and then conviniently forgot to provide the Union lawyers with the information in a timely manner so they could refute his creative cooking. Not even one comment from him on that thread, yet he gets all excited that UAL will now allow (thanks to a positive ruling from the IRS) the employee owners of UAL to cash out at around $.83 a share intead of losing everything when the stock is cancelled. Can you say "Obsessed"? UNBELIEVEABLE!!

 

[A320 Driver]

As far a UAL is concerned, I pay little attention to the numbers. UAL has shown its resiliency time and time again in the worst of economic times. It was just a few years ago when United was in financial turmoil and all of the numbers required a 70%+ load factor to break even. The analysts all said that kind of load factor was "economically unfeasible". Well, next thing you know, they are the worlds largest airline and making money.
The present difficulty at UAL will pass with time, as it will for U. The economy HAS to cycle upward at some point, always has...always will. We just have to find enough resources to hang on until then. That's not to say that we don't all have to change the way we do business...we do. But the big question is what will the managements of these companies do when the money starts coming in again, prepare for the future or continue to rape and pillage to line their own pockets. At SOME point you have to pay off your bills!


Some thoughts,

A320 Driver

GIVE IT BACK!!!!!

 

[Busdrvr]

"I sincerely hope they don''t touch UAL pensions, I know how I would feel, and outraged would be an understatement. Trouble is, it seems the domino effect is in play with the airlines, UAL farms out maintenance and the other say they too must follow, U crabs pilots pension everyone else must follow suit."

Point of order. UAL was the industry leader when it came to the amount of MX work done by it''s own employees. We are now following everyone else, not the other way around. UAL will still likely be one of the least outsourced airlines after the changes take place. As for the pension and it''s assumptions, UAL changed ALL of it''s assumptions in 2002 to make the pension "look" more underfunded. The expected ROR went from 9.75% to 9.0%, the discount rate went from 7.75% in 200 to 6.75% in 2002 and the expected annual increase in employee compensation went from 4.2% to 4.3%, despite the fact that from the end of 2002 until the middle of 2008, pilot pay will be DOWN approx 27%, instead of up 18%. Thats a 45% differance (quick guestimate). Kind of makes those pension assumptions (and any implied pension "crisis") seem comical

 

[737nCH11]

A320Driver,

Well said!!!

 

[oldiebutgoody]

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On 7/6/2003 1:41:45 PM LavMan wrote:


Now besides being a pilot and a financial analyst he is a BK judge or lawyer:


Meanwhile, US has contingency plans in place should UA fail and as I have said before, maybe the only way UA can get its POR approved by the court is for a UCT or ICT to occur.

Man someone is really full of themselves now. Maybe Tilton flew on US Airways Shuttle in the jump seat recently.


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Yes, lavman. You really DO seem to be full of yourself....

 

[USA320Pilot]

MarkMyWords:

MarkMyWords asked: "Let's say, for arguements sake, that UAL does end up liquidating. Since our business plan calls for substantial benefits from the code share agreement, if they liquidate would this then trigger a default in our ATSB loan because we would no longer realize the benefits of the code share? Could the ATSB come back and take their money?"

Chip answers: Your question is valid and warrants discussion. US’ final loan guarantee approval was based on a business plan that required a seven percent profit margin in seven years and the funds must paid back to the lending institutions. Moreover, the plan required Fitch Rating, the ATSB outside auditor, to provide the Board with and opinion of the business plan.

These requirements are the same for all loan guarantee applicants and is the reason the ATSB rejected UA’s first loan guarantee request.

The UA plan projected a $200 million per revenue increase due to the alliance, however, if UA fails, the money does not have to be returned to the lenders for this industry event.

US would be required to pay the loan back regardless of the UA situation, but a failure of UA would not be reason for US to lose the $1 billion.

Meanwhile, US has contingency plans in place should UA fail and as I have said before, maybe the only way UA can get its POR approved by the court is for a UCT or ICT to occur.

I had no intention to disucss the UA pension problems that are effecting all legacy airlines, however, in regard to the naysayers and those who like to shoot the messenger, the UA pension problems are real and could cause the liquidation of the airline, unless there is some form of resolution. This could include plan terminations, a legislative solution, or by other means, to permit the business plan, POR, and disclosure statement to be approved.

As with the US ALPA pension issue, the Rocky Mountain News reported "It's very much a possibility" that United will follow in US Airways' path, said Ray Neidl, an analyst at Blaylock & Partners in New York. The pension deficit "could be one of the obstacles to getting out of bankruptcy."

The Rocky Mountain News also said as part of its effort to obtain exit financing, the Chicago-based carrier plans to seek a $1.8 billion loan guarantee from the federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board. The panel rejected a previous request Dec. 4, prompting UAL's bankruptcy filing. It cited United's pension problem as a "substantial" concern.

Obviously, this is a huge issue and the financial markets have not recovered enough to meet all of its obligations. For those naysayers who are pilots, maybe you should check with ALPA R&I.

Finally, In my opinion I believe it’s significant the newspaper reported the company has not come to us (to try to terminate) our pensions, and we've made it very clear that it would be unacceptable for them to terminate any portion," said Capt. Scottie Clark, a spokeswoman for United's pilots union, the Air Line Pilots Association.

Such a move, she warned, "would cause a meltdown on this property."


Best regards,

Chip