The impact on AA of the change in WA restricitions

[WorldTraveler]

E,

Since the conversation was terminated in the middle of your math exercise, lets continue here.

Divide the 85K seats you came up with for schedules by the 756 flights/day you say AA operates.

Throw out flights to GRU and NRT WN cant fly there.

What is the number?

Now lets use the number of local DOMESTIC passengers you say that AA boards at DFW.

Now apply your percentage. Well use it because it will show the point regardless of whether it is right or not.

Now, multiple 150 seats per flight times 160 flights per day. Thats the number of seats that WN could push thru DAL that they can use to target the DFW market that it cannot now serve.

What is that number, E?

Now what is the multiple of size that AA has over WN? Now factor in that other carriers including DL can and will also fly from DFW and/or DAL to some of those same destinations.
WN very much has the ability to win over a significant portion of the local DFW market using its capacity at Love Field.

 

[eolesen]

WT, why is it that you always find a need to have the last word, even on a thread that was locked because of your behavior?

I've written enough over the last ten years about how much of a non-impact the elimination of the Wright Amendment will be. Feel free to use the search function, but I'm done responding to you. You're not worth the time or bandwidth.

I'll say it again for the benefit of the AA crowd who has no use for the DL forum (especially since DL seems to be discussed here more than in the actual DL forum......)



You're the guy who smokes at his desk in a small office.

Annoying once in a while, but intolerable over time.

 

[robbedagain]

E are those same or similar nbrs the dot uses when they do the on time pax complaints n baggage complaints etc

 

[eolesen]

Nope. I'm posting capacities. Multiply those against load factor, and you'll get something closer to the numbers which go into DOT's consumer travel report.

 

[WorldTraveler]

We were having a conversation... you apparently felt a need to respond before the thread was shut down and you have continued to respond to this thread.

The discussion about the effect of the WA on DFW is based on real, accurate, and known numbers for the size of the local market in a given city. It is not a matter of opinion and it is not pragmatic.

You have consistently expressed doubts about the effect of the lifting of the Wright Amendment on AA at DFW.

As long as you want to continue to hold out that view, I will post the factual information that demonstrates the market situation.

You can post the actual capacity that AA deploys all day long and you can also make your swags at the size of the local market, but the number is well known.

We established that the capacity you cited is almost identical to what I posted. Capacity is not the question.

The size of the local market vs. the number of seats that are filled by connecting passengers is where we differ.

And the actual number matters a great deal because the actual local market is what WN will go after when Wright restrictions are lifted.

DOT data shows that AA boards about 21K local DFW passengers per day. If you exclude int'l passengers, AA boards just under 19K domestic LOCAL DFW passengers per day.

The simple fact that you don't seem to want to admit is that WN is more than capable of mounting enough capacity to carry 50% of the local DFW domestic market.

If you want to talk about actual data driven topics, which you seem to love to jump into, then you can expect that there will be data that will either confirm what you say or counter it.

Your alternative is to stick to topics which are based on opinion and which can't be countered by fact.

Don't tell me how irritating it is to you that I post on a topic and then turn around and feel that you need to get the last word.

We went thru this multiple times about Asia with you trying to counter my arguments that AA was losing significant amounts of money flying to Asia until published DOT data came out showing that AA's losses in Asia amounted to 25% of its revenues in the first quarter of this year. Even with the 2nd quarter, they still had double digit percent losses, far higher than any other carrier has had to any other region of the world.

What I said about Asia was absolutely accurate despite the fact that you tried repeatedly to argue that what I said was inaccurate.

If you don't like what I post, do what you have told other people to do and what you said you did - put me on ignore.

IN reality, you can't stand that I really might be able to say something that you can't counter - so you can't ignore me and keep the thread going.

Once again, WN can easily put 20K seats per day into Love. Even if only half of them are used for domestic local passengers, that is more than enough for WN to accommodate 50% of the entire DFW domestic market that AA carries.

And if WN succeeds at shifting even 25% of that traffic away from AA at DFW, AA's finances will change dramatically.

25% losses on AA's smallest region are tolerable and even justifiable. losing 25% of the local revenue at the largest hub is a recipe for financial collapse.

 

[Rogallo]

Annoying once in a while, but intolerable over time.

Hello!!!!!!!

 

[Force Majeure]

Mr. Oleson, this person clearly threw flame bait out to you after the moderators locked that other thread. I don't know why you bit?

It sounds like you two have a history. Trolls like that will usually slink back under the bridge if left alone for long enough.

And for what it is worth, I will not respond to whatever the traveler says about me here for voicing my opinion on this back and forth.

 

[WorldTraveler]

What would I have to say about you?

If you respond, I would rather than you respond to the facts at hand regarding the topic that is being discussed - the impact of changes to the WA on AA's finances.


I'm baiting no one. I'm discussing a topic that is absolutely relevant to AA stakeholders. E and I have had a number of discussions about financial issues in the industry. This is just another....

one of the key aspects of what keeps the board operating. As of this moment, there are 450 people looking at the board. They come here for a reason.

 

[Rogallo]

Two know-it-alls trying to get the last word in!

 

[LDVAviation]

You're the guy who smokes at his desk in a small office.

Annoying once in a while, but intolerable over time.

 
If it is any consolation, this might be the beginning of the end.  There was a similar rant when DL and the "smoker" did not get their way and JAL stayed in oneworld.  It didn't take long after that for the smoke to clear at airliners.net.  (The mods might have had something to do with that.)