Probabilities
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oldiebutgoody
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- Aug 23, 2002
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Hate to interject the reality of this situation, but UAIR is DONE! Stick a fork in 'em! Management has had two years to find a niche and has failed miserably! Sorry, I'm not the only one that feels this way- just saw a VERY RESPECTED analyst on CNBC that said the same thing! 
ITRADE
Veteran
Name of the analyst?
I have to agree. Management has had TWO YEARS to get everything from wages to a VIABLE Business Plan in Place and have FAILED. We, the EMPLOYEES, have given twice before and MANAGEMENT has done nothing with the savings. Dave wants .06 per seat mile, but he can not get it with our Route Network. Some of the Airports we fly into have some of the Highest Costs in the Country, DCA and LGA just to name a few. Even if we worked for FREE, it would be hard to achieve six cents.........
Will some labor agree to Concessions Round 3. Yes. Probably ALPA. Will it matter, no not really.
If all labor agrees to 50% cuts (combination of furloughs, productivity, and wages), it will result in a reduction of CASM by about 10-15%. That will take US Airways from a 10cent CASM to a 9cent CASM... More competitive? YES. Profitable? Probably not.
This company has had YEARS to restructure the the non-labor costs to save itself. The fleet should have been completely transistioned to Airbus (or nearly completely, an argument can be made to save the B757's). The Express carriers should have been simplified (wholly owneds and affiliates) years ago. PHL could have been moved to a rolling hub years ago. Even when given the opportunity to close or dramatically restructure PIT, the company could not do so. This company has made EXACTLY ZERO moves to reduce non-labor costs. It is now too late. Labor can try to save the company, but it will not be enough IMHO.
The hard working employees of US Airways will be the ones who suffer for years of management neglect, blunders, and visionless leadership. Seigel is trying to find a scapegoat - the unions. The real problem is years of bad management.
If all labor agrees to 50% cuts (combination of furloughs, productivity, and wages), it will result in a reduction of CASM by about 10-15%. That will take US Airways from a 10cent CASM to a 9cent CASM... More competitive? YES. Profitable? Probably not.
This company has had YEARS to restructure the the non-labor costs to save itself. The fleet should have been completely transistioned to Airbus (or nearly completely, an argument can be made to save the B757's). The Express carriers should have been simplified (wholly owneds and affiliates) years ago. PHL could have been moved to a rolling hub years ago. Even when given the opportunity to close or dramatically restructure PIT, the company could not do so. This company has made EXACTLY ZERO moves to reduce non-labor costs. It is now too late. Labor can try to save the company, but it will not be enough IMHO.
The hard working employees of US Airways will be the ones who suffer for years of management neglect, blunders, and visionless leadership. Seigel is trying to find a scapegoat - the unions. The real problem is years of bad management.
ITRADE
Veteran
Hmmm....seems that at least three different members heard it a very different way from you. But of course, you're hearing only the words you want to hear.oldiebutgoody said:Hate to interject the reality of this situation, but UAIR is DONE! Stick a fork in 'em! Management has had two years to find a niche and has failed miserably! Sorry, I'm not the only one that feels this way- just saw a VERY RESPECTED analyst on CNBC that said the same thing!
oldiebutgoody
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- Aug 23, 2002
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Sorry, You're wrong. I wasn't talking about Mr. Boyd, who himself stated that his opinion could only be given in the context that he himself advises the labor unions. Dr. Maldutis earlier stated that IF UAIR were still in business in a year he believed it would ONLY be as a MUCH SMALLER carrier based out of PIT. In fact, the way he worded it, it sounded as if he had serious doubts about it's survival at all, no matter what happens. Saw it myself. Don't believe me, call CNBC and ask for a transcript, if it isn't already on their website. <_<ITRADE said:
I have no doubt, that U can become competetive and that they can beat SWA. The question is, at what cost to the employees? It is no secret, he with the lowest CASM wins, unless you can exact higher ticket revenue. With the way things stand now, the answer is no on etting more per ticket, except in a few markets, so that will not carry U. Then it must be done by productivity increases, reduction in wages and furloughs, basically with Siegel said. Again, the question is, how much will the employees have to accept, it will not be SWA pay, not HP, not jetBlue, it sounds like it will be even less.
Secondly, the question is, whether he succeded in making SWA the enemy and not himself. Of course, only the individual viewer can make that determination.
If he is sincere, then as of today, he will settle all grievances expeditiously. He will forfeit the golden parachute and sign the contract he said he would, as well as reducing management salaries. This cannot be done, once all the Union employees are onboard, he must lead this change. Speaking of change, as of today, there should and must be visible changes. The time is now!
Best of luck!
Secondly, the question is, whether he succeded in making SWA the enemy and not himself. Of course, only the individual viewer can make that determination.
If he is sincere, then as of today, he will settle all grievances expeditiously. He will forfeit the golden parachute and sign the contract he said he would, as well as reducing management salaries. This cannot be done, once all the Union employees are onboard, he must lead this change. Speaking of change, as of today, there should and must be visible changes. The time is now!
Best of luck!
the turtle
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- Mar 7, 2003
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they're done.
