Pilot "early Outs" And Retirements

[Flufdriver]

BoeingBoy or 320 or anyone who knows....Just curious, after reading how many F/As are leaving or thinking about it, does anyone have any "Good" numbers of how many pilots are leaving do to "Early Out" of "Normal" retirement and the timeline!!! I heard there were a lot!!!

 

[BoeingBoy]

Flufdriver,

I certainly have no "inside" info - only rumor. USA320Pilot and the BOS/CLT F/O reps have said at least 200. Some pilots say they have talked to K Browne at the ALPA office and she knows of only about 50 or so.

The timeline? I would only presume that it is driven by the 1/1/05 cutoff of post-retirement medical. As I've said before, I would tell anyone contemplating that to pay close attention to what's happening with the 1114 process and try not to commit themselves before the results of that process are known - at least what the company wants will hopefully be known before 1/1/05 although it's possible that the judge won't have ruled.

If you're contemplating the potential furlough numbers and how they could be offset, the only firm number is 145. That's the age 60 retirements through the end of next year that really matter. You'll see the number 170 bandied about for normal retirements. While accurate, it includes those who will retire from either furlough or LTD status, and those retirements don't offset any potential furloughs.

All the other numbers you see or hear are speculation. 200 pilots short on staffing presumes that the company will suddenly "see the light" and stop trying to operate understaffed. Some number of pilots for the extra utilization - no one knows with absolute certainty how many planes we'll be operating come Feb since at some point the leasors can take their toys and play elsewhere. You get the idea.

Jim

 

[Flufdriver]

Thanks Jim...so many variables! You hear all kind of numbers floating around.

Fluf

 

[BoeingBoy]

I know. The Feb permanent bid, when (if?) it comes out, will give some idea of short term staffing needed, though presumably there could still be changes to the fleet due to leasors pulling airplanes since the bid will need to be out by the end of this month or the first few days of next at the latest.

Jim

 

[USA320Pilot]

2004 - 26 age 60 retirements
2005 - 144 age 60 retirements
2005 - 120 EVLA's
2004 - about 400 ERIP applications, although it's unclear how many will actually retire before January 1, 2005.
2004 - 2005 Resignations are a relatively small number
2004 - 2005 During the first 10 months of 2004, LTD's averaged about 20 per month

Separately, the February schedule creates approsimately 270 additional pilot positions due to increased utilization. This is based on a 281 aircraft fleet, but the S.1110 aircraft lease rejection expires on November 12 and then we could know more about next year's fleet plan.

After the December 1 ERIPs, the February bid will be published and provide a definitive answer to 2005 pilot staffing requirements.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot