BoeingBoy
Veteran
- Nov 9, 2003
- 16,512
- 5,865
- Banned
- #1
A little different look this week....
Crude Oil Supply (4 week average):
Domestic Procuction - 5,048,000 bbls (down 7.8% YoY)
Net Imports (imports less exports) - 9,960,000 bbl (down 1% YoY)
Jet Fuel Supplied (4 week average):
1,599,000 bbls (down 3.3% YoY)
Jet Fuel Stocks on 3/10/06:
Total Domestic - 42,800,000 bbls (up 8.1% YoY)
- East Coast - 10,400,000 bbls
- Midwest - 8,000,000 bbls
- Gulf Coast - 13,200,000 bbls
- Rocky Mountain - 600,000 bbls
- West Coast - 10,500,000 bbls
Jet Fuel Production (4 week avg):
Total Domestic - 1,462,000 bbls/day
- East Coast - 75,000 bbls/day
- Midwest - 214,000 bbls/day
- Gulf Coast - 743,000 bbls/day
- Rocky Mountain - 26,000 bbls/day
- West Coast - 404,000 bbls/day
Jet Fuel Imports (4 week avg):
Total Imports - 106,000 bbls/day
- East Coast - 55,000 bbls/day
- Midwest - 0 bbls/day
- Gulf Coast - 0 bbls/day
- Rocky Mountain - 0 bbls/day
- West Coast - 51,000 bbls/day
Spot prices on 3/10/06:
NY Harbor Jet - $1.8300/gal (down 8.40 cents from 3/03/06)
Gulf Coast Jet - $1.7950/gal (down 12.90 cents from 3/03/06)
Los Angeles Jet - $1.7700/gal (down 17.00 cents from 3/03/06)
WTI-Cushing Crude - $59.91/bbl (down $3.70 from 3/03/06)
Bloomberg is currently showing WTI-Cushing at $62.30 (noon on 3/16/06)
Interesting read from EIA's 'This Week in Petroleum':
-----
A Buying Spree? At These Prices?
More National Football League (NFL) free agents have been signed in the last few days than ever before over such a short period of time. These players are not coming cheaply either, with some teams, including the Washington Redskins, spending tens of millions of dollars to sign players that they expect will provide dividends in the future. Something similar is going on in oil markets, with companies continuing to bring in crude oil and gasoline imports, even at today’s relatively high prices and with apparently abundant stock levels already. Why? Because they think buying now will yield benefits later.
While it is true that crude oil imports over the past four weeks are down slightly compared to the same period last year, this is happening with crude oil prices $5 to $10 per barrel higher than a year ago, and with crude oil inventories nearly 32 million barrels (more than 10 percent) higher, as well. With prices significantly higher and inventory levels the highest in almost seven years, it may be somewhat surprising that import levels are as high as they are. But to many buyers, $60 crude oil can still be valuable if they expect to be able to sell it later for $65 per barrel, or expect to refine it and sell the refined products for more later in the year. As EIA has written lately, if you expect prices to be higher in the future (due to geopolitical situations in Nigeria, Iran, and other countries; MTBE-to-ethanol transition; ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel; continued strong demand growth; etc.) it can make economic sense to buy now, even if inventories are already high. A deepening contango structure (when prompt prices are less than future deliveries) in crude oil futures markets makes these market expectations transparent and promotes this “buy more now†behavior.
While some fans wonder if NFL teams are “overpaying†for some of their recent acquisitions, the players are simply getting what the market will bear. The same is true in the current oil market. While the prices being paid for crude oil and gasoline imports may seem too high to some people, especially given the level of inventories, willing buyers are expecting to reap future benefits from the purchases they are now making.
-----
As usual, the same chart as last week's post - moved here for convenience:
View attachment 4634
Jim
Crude Oil Supply (4 week average):
Domestic Procuction - 5,048,000 bbls (down 7.8% YoY)
Net Imports (imports less exports) - 9,960,000 bbl (down 1% YoY)
Jet Fuel Supplied (4 week average):
1,599,000 bbls (down 3.3% YoY)
Jet Fuel Stocks on 3/10/06:
Total Domestic - 42,800,000 bbls (up 8.1% YoY)
- East Coast - 10,400,000 bbls
- Midwest - 8,000,000 bbls
- Gulf Coast - 13,200,000 bbls
- Rocky Mountain - 600,000 bbls
- West Coast - 10,500,000 bbls
Jet Fuel Production (4 week avg):
Total Domestic - 1,462,000 bbls/day
- East Coast - 75,000 bbls/day
- Midwest - 214,000 bbls/day
- Gulf Coast - 743,000 bbls/day
- Rocky Mountain - 26,000 bbls/day
- West Coast - 404,000 bbls/day
Jet Fuel Imports (4 week avg):
Total Imports - 106,000 bbls/day
- East Coast - 55,000 bbls/day
- Midwest - 0 bbls/day
- Gulf Coast - 0 bbls/day
- Rocky Mountain - 0 bbls/day
- West Coast - 51,000 bbls/day
Spot prices on 3/10/06:
NY Harbor Jet - $1.8300/gal (down 8.40 cents from 3/03/06)
Gulf Coast Jet - $1.7950/gal (down 12.90 cents from 3/03/06)
Los Angeles Jet - $1.7700/gal (down 17.00 cents from 3/03/06)
WTI-Cushing Crude - $59.91/bbl (down $3.70 from 3/03/06)
Bloomberg is currently showing WTI-Cushing at $62.30 (noon on 3/16/06)
Interesting read from EIA's 'This Week in Petroleum':
-----
A Buying Spree? At These Prices?
More National Football League (NFL) free agents have been signed in the last few days than ever before over such a short period of time. These players are not coming cheaply either, with some teams, including the Washington Redskins, spending tens of millions of dollars to sign players that they expect will provide dividends in the future. Something similar is going on in oil markets, with companies continuing to bring in crude oil and gasoline imports, even at today’s relatively high prices and with apparently abundant stock levels already. Why? Because they think buying now will yield benefits later.
While it is true that crude oil imports over the past four weeks are down slightly compared to the same period last year, this is happening with crude oil prices $5 to $10 per barrel higher than a year ago, and with crude oil inventories nearly 32 million barrels (more than 10 percent) higher, as well. With prices significantly higher and inventory levels the highest in almost seven years, it may be somewhat surprising that import levels are as high as they are. But to many buyers, $60 crude oil can still be valuable if they expect to be able to sell it later for $65 per barrel, or expect to refine it and sell the refined products for more later in the year. As EIA has written lately, if you expect prices to be higher in the future (due to geopolitical situations in Nigeria, Iran, and other countries; MTBE-to-ethanol transition; ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel; continued strong demand growth; etc.) it can make economic sense to buy now, even if inventories are already high. A deepening contango structure (when prompt prices are less than future deliveries) in crude oil futures markets makes these market expectations transparent and promotes this “buy more now†behavior.
While some fans wonder if NFL teams are “overpaying†for some of their recent acquisitions, the players are simply getting what the market will bear. The same is true in the current oil market. While the prices being paid for crude oil and gasoline imports may seem too high to some people, especially given the level of inventories, willing buyers are expecting to reap future benefits from the purchases they are now making.
-----
As usual, the same chart as last week's post - moved here for convenience:
View attachment 4634
Jim
