Petroleum Infrastructure Recover

BoeingBoy

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Nov 9, 2003
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Since a new EIA weekly petroleum report is due out in a couple of days and the other thread was getting a little long, I thought I'd start a new thread just for the daily updates from the various government agencies.

So here's the latest from today - 9/5/05:

* According to Colonial Pipeline officials, full power has been restored to the pipeline at 2PM on 9/5/05 and is now at 100% of pumping capacity.

* The LOOP has been operating at almost full capacity today but Entergy has not yet restored power to the Clovelly storage facility. The LOOP expects to be at full capacity when Fourchon gets power, which should occur in about 7 days. LOOP currently is delivering crude oil to the Capline pipeline. Tankers are making crude deliveries to the LOOP. The US Navy is using sonar to help identify obstructions near the marine terminal so safe paths for large vessels can be marked. [I probably should have clarified before noe for any who might be wondering - LOOP is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform - or close to that - where tankers offload]

* The Capline pipeline system is now running at 960,000 barrels a day, which is over 80 percent of capacity.

* According to the Monday MMS reports, 27.83 percent of 819 manned platforms and 27.61 percent of 137 rigs have been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,043,681 BOPD. The shut-in oil production is equivalent to 69.57% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD. This represents a 5 percent improvement from yesterday’s figures.

* As of 9:00 pm last night at least 55 miles of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway was still closed to navigation (from Mile Marker 15 to Mile Marker 70.) This is in the area between the Lower Mississippi and Gulfport, Mississippi. The US Coast Guard is surveying the waterway and replacing navigational aids at a rate of about 20 miles per day. At this rate the entire waterway should be open between the Lower Mississippi and all points east by the end of Wednesday. The Port of Gulfport is still closed and the Port of Pascagoula is only allowing vessels to operate in the day, if they have draughts of less than 12 feet. Other ports east of Pascagoula (in AL and FL) are open.

* Port of Mobile is operating during daylight hours only with temporary navigation aids in place. The Mississippi River is now officially open to ships with a draft of 35 feet during daylight hours. The US Army Corps of Engineers is currently dredging the channel so that Shell Oil company’s dock can receive a 40-foot draught crude oil tanker (arriving in a few days), to traverse channel and safely dock and unload. Currently the channel to Shell can only take ships with a draught of 38 feet or less.

Page 3 of the following pdf file lists the status of individual refineries in the affected region:

See page 3 for table

To summerize the table, 10 refineries with over 1.9 million bbls/day combined capacity remain shut down, 4 refineries with nearly 1.25 million bbls/day combined capacity are operating at a reduced capacity (output unspecified), and 15 refineries with a combined capacity of just over 3.2 million bbls/day are at normal production.

Jim
 
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The MMS figures as of today @ 1PM CDT:

192 of 819 manned platforms in the Gulf remain evacuated (23.44%)

27 of 134 rigs remain evacuated (20.15%)

Today’s shut-in oil production is 870,374 bbls/day. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 58.02% of the daily oil production in the Gulf, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD. This represents a 9 percent improvement from Monday’s figures.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/6/05 is 12,752,039 bbls, which is equivalent to 2.329% of the yearly production of oil in the Gulf (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

Jim
 
Stocks rise as oil aids discounters -- Analyst: “We know the damage to refineries isn't quite as extensive as everybody feared. Things are improving in New Orleans ... and of course oil has fallen backâ€￾

See Story

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
USA320Pilot said:
Stocks rise as oil aids discounters -- Analyst: “We know the damage to refineries isn't quite as extensive as everybody feared. Things are improving in New Orleans ... and of course oil has fallen backâ€￾

See Story

Regards,

USA320Pilot
[post="297257"][/post]​

There you have it, we're out of the woods!
 
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"and of course oil has fallen back"

It could possibly be argued that crude prices are depressed at the moment - SPR oil released, the European's releasing oil from their equivalents, refinery outages/reduced capacity curtailing the ability to refine the available crude. Not a pleasant thought with today's close still $8/bbl above that used in the financial forecasts for the "New" US Airways.

Some numbers.....

On August 26, the Friday before Katrina:
NYMEX crude closed at $66.13/bbl
NYMEX heating oil closed at $1.8712/gal
Spot price for Gulf coast jet fuel was $1.8925/gal

Notice the relative prices of heating oil and Gulf coast jet fuel....

Today:
NYMEX crude closed at $65.96/bbl (below pre-Katrina)
NYMEX heating oil closed at $2.0543 (16 cents above pre-Katrina)

Anyone care to guess what the Gulf coast jet fuel spot price was today?

Jim
 
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Sept 7 DOE daily report....

* The LOOP reports that it has two of its three berths open, which allows dual discharging while also eliminating the turnaround time between pumping sessions. The LOOP is currently operating at about 75% of its maximum. Entergy expects to have the LOOP’s tank facility power back today, which will allow LOOP to access to the special crudes refineries are requesting. Outbound deliveries are resuming with the exception of a few large refineries located in the New Orleans area. Entergy is working with GE to obtain a 22 MW generator to provide power to the Fourchon Booster Station. Operations may return to normal by this weekend. Seven ships are awaiting entrance into LOOP. Outbound deliveries are resuming with the exception of a few large refineries located in the New Orleans area.

* The Tables below show, as of September 6, the current status of the refineries impacted by Hurricane Katrina. Improvements continue in the Southeast refinery complex.

Table is on page 3-4 of this pdf file

To summerize the table:

Of the 10 refineries previously reported as shut-down, 2 are restarting and expect full operational capability by the end of today (combined capacity nearly 500,000 bbls/day) and 1 is operating at reduced capacity (full capacity 80,000 bbls/day).

of the 5 refineries previously reported as operating at reduced rates, all are expected to be at full production capacity in the next several days.

Jim
 
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The daily MMS update is out....

163 of 819 manned platforms remain evacuated (19.9%)

16 of 134 rigs remain evacuated (11.9%)

Today’s shut-in oil production is 860,568 bbls/day. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 57.37% of the daily oil production in the Gulf, which is currently approximately 1.5 million bbls/day.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/7/05 is 13,607,835 bbls, which is equivalent to 2.485% of the yearly production of oil in the Gulf (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

Jim
 
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Update as of 9/10/05.....

* On 9/9/05, the Environmental Protection Agency extended two waivers for the
Richmond, VA, and Atlanta, GA, areas. A second reformulated gasoline (RFG) waiver
for the Richmond, VA, area was issued due to continued shortages of RFG. The waiver,
which expired on 9/9/05, is now extended through September 23, 2005. A second
extension was issued for counties in the Atlanta area waiving gasoline RVP and sulfur
regulations until midnight on October 5, 2005.

* The LOOP expects to be operating at 100 percent within the next week, when Fourchon becomes operational. Currently the LOOP is still operating at 75 percent.

* According to MMS reports on 9/10, 14.9% of 819 manned platforms and 2.24% of 134 rigs remain evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Today’s shut-in oil production is 897,605 bbls/day. The shut-in oil production is equivalent to 59.8 percent of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

* For an overview, here are the daily percentages of shut-in oil production in the Gulf starting on 8/30/05:

August 30 95.20
August 31 91.45
September 1 90.43
September 2 88.53
September 3 78.98
September 4 No data reported No data reported
September 5 69.57
September 6 58.02
September 7 57.37
September 8 60.12++
September 9 59.88
September 10 59.84
++Oil Production Shut-ins continue to decline, despite the apparent rise in the figures released by MMS. According to MMS, this rise in the statistics occurred today because a company just reported a significant amount of shut-in oil production today that has been shut-in since the hurricane hit, but was not reported as such due to communications problems.

Refinery status as of 9/9/05 (the last reported):

5 refineries remain shut down with a combined capacity of 934,000 bbls/day.

2 refineries remain operating at reduced capacity with a combined full capacity of 461,500 bbls/day. Actual output is unspecified.

Jim
 
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It seems that the process of restoring oil rigs/platforms and refineries to service is slowing down as all the easy repairs have mostly been done, so it may be time to stop daily updates. I'll probably just add any major changes after this.....

Today's report:

* According to MMS reports on 9/12, 12.82% of 819 manned platforms and 2.24% of 134 rigs remain evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Today’s shut-in oil production is 860,636 bbls/day. The shut-in oil production is equivalent to 57.38 percent of the normal daily oil production in the Gulf.

* The repair or replacement of flooded substations will delay restoration of transmission service to several refineries downstream of New Orleans. Inspection of customer facilities is required before service can be restored.

* The State University of New York Maritime College reported that its training ship, the 565-foot Empire State VI, will be utilized to berth up to 700 ConocoPhillips employees and contract workers as they begin repairs on strategic infrastructure and facilities at ConocoPhillips’ oil refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana. The ship should arrive in New Orleans on September 16th.

* There is no change in reported refinery status - 5 remain shut down and 2 are operating at reduced capacity.

* The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport has set Tuesday, September 13, as the date to re-open the Airport to scheduled passenger air service following the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Cargo flights will resume immediately. Armstrong International Airport has been operational since Tuesday, August 30, for humanitarian relief flights and civilian and military rescue efforts.

Jim
 
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Nothing much new to report, but it's been over a week since I added anything so here's the latest.....

4 refineries remain out of service, and are expected to remain our for an "extended period". I haven't seen anything more specific on repair and return to service estimates. These 4 refineries account for 5% of U.S. refining capacity.

877,275 bbls/day of crude oil production remains shut-in the the Gulf. This represents 58.49% of normal daily Gulf production. This has increased due to preparations for Hurricane Rita (the percentage of production shut-in had decreased to 55.84% in yesterday's MMS report)

All eyes are now watching Hurricane Rita. Forecasts indicate it may strengthen to Catagory 4 while in the Gulf and current track forecasts indicate landfall around the Galveston-Houston area (though the track "cone" extends as far NE as the LA coast).

While the Galveston-Houston area has significantly fewer offshore oil rigs/platforms than the northern Gulf, there are more refineries - something over 20% of U.S. refining capacity is in that area.

Jim
 
Jim,

I have to agree. Hurricane Rita means that all bets are off...and the potential alone can drive costs up again.

According to what I've heard and read. The Galveston-Houston area has an impact on at least 25% of the refined fuel products being produced...and much of that is directed toward east coast demands.

Speculation alone could create a negative impact that could last up to two weeks in regards to higher prices. Needless to say...all my vehilces will be topped off...and if one needs to sit idle as a storage mechanism? So be it. I have no intentions of being caught behind the eight-ball and sitting in angry lines.
 
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Phantom Fixer said:
According to what I've heard and read. The Galveston-Houston area has an impact on at least 25% of the refined fuel products being produced...and much of that is directed toward east coast demands.
[post="303249"][/post]​

Thanks for that. I knew it was over 20% but didn't remember a specific number and was too lazy to try to find one.

I'm sure you noticed the jump in crude prices yesterday - up over $4 - due to Rita. It came down some today but all bets are off until Rita passes and the damage is known.

Jim

Edit - Oops, I just looked and NYMEX crude has regained in after market trading what it lost during the day - back over $67.]
 

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