Merger Mania Thread

[SparrowHawk]

Thought it might be fun for all of us to take a moment and ponder the merger possibilities for US Airways.

Let's keep it light and in the spirit of the old SNL skits with Dan Akroyd and Jane Curtin, always in jest and not mean spirited or hurtful.


I'll go first. Up here in the Great White North we have an airline called Sun Country. It has a rousing 12 planes. Sun Country was once part of the business domain of convicted businessman Tom Petters, whose estate is now in bankruptcy. The trustee in that case, Doug Kelley, has been pursing potential buyers as part of the bankruptcy proceeding. Tom Petters is like a smaller MidWest version of Bernie Madof sort of. Sun Country is being shopped around by BK Trustee.

If the price were right US could benefit as it would increase their Midwest presence. Looking at the route structure I think if I pulled the trigger on the deal I'd buy and leave as a wholly owned subsidiary.

There now we got some Wild Speculation to get us started. Let's have some fun OK?

 

[Jester]

I'll go first. Up here in the Great White North we have an airline called Sun Country. It has a rousing 12 planes. Sun Country was once part of the business domain of convicted businessman Tom Petters, whose estate is now in bankruptcy. The trustee in that case, Doug Kelley, has been pursing potential buyers as part of the bankruptcy proceeding. Tom Petters is like a smaller MidWest version of Bernie Madof sort of. Sun Country is being shopped around by BK Trustee.

If the price were right US could benefit as it would increase their Midwest presence. Looking at the route structure I think if I pulled the trigger on the deal I'd buy and leave as a wholly owned subsidiary.

There now we got some Wild Speculation to get us started. Let's have some fun OK?

A small sub-fleet of B737NGs as US is trying to retire the few remaining B737-3/4's? And for what? To be in the middle of DL's MSP hub? Sounds like something SWA would show some interest instead, if they hadn't already acquired AirTran and the DL dominated ATL hub.

As we are throwing out ideas, I could see a Frontier merger/takeover if the price was right, and draw down DEN for more of a midwest presence in which had an established operation in MKE or MCI? US has had a close working relationship with Republic Airlines who is the parent company of Frontier, and rumors have been working that Republic is trying to dump the Frontier brand in large part because it has been a blood bath for fares out of DEN with two other airlines having de facto hub operations. I know Kirby said publically US would not merge with a smaller airline, so you know it is a sure thing now!

I think that bAAstard airline is still possible, but not until it cleanses itself of its debt, pension obligations and labor contracts through a heavy wash cycle of bankruptcy.

So Speculates Jester.

 

[SparrowHawk]

A small sub-fleet of B737NGs as US is trying to retire the few remaining B737-3/4's? And for what? To be in the middle of DL's MSP hub? Sounds like something SWA would show some interest instead, if they hadn't already acquired AirTran and the DL dominated ATL hub.

As we are throwing out ideas, I could see a Frontier merger/takeover if the price was right, and draw down DEN for more of a midwest presence in which had an established operation in MKE or MCI? US has had a close working relationship with Republic Airlines who is the parent company of Frontier, and rumors have been working that Republic is trying to dump the Frontier brand in large part because it has been a blood bath for fares out of DEN with two other airlines having de facto hub operations. I know Kirby said publically US would not merge with a smaller airline, so you know it is a sure thing now!

I think that bAAstard airline is still possible, but not until it cleanses itself of its debt, pension obligations and labor contracts through a heavy wash cycle of bankruptcy.

So Speculates Jester.

One of the variable with Sun Country is that MSP is VERY receptive to assisting other carriers not named DL come to, remain or expand to MSP. What if any assistance from the airport authority they would receive is anyone's guess but WN didn't come here out of the goodness of their heart. My thoughts are US should do the airline equivalent of "Dumpster Diving" and go after some of these 6, 8, 10, 12, 20 plane carriers. Buy them right, get the lift out of the system or make it your lift.

One of the things that make Sun Country interesting is they have a wildly successful MSP to London Gatwick route which means at least one of those planes can make the trip from MSP. If these 12 planes were so equipped couldn't they be re-purposed for European or South American routes?

 

[signals]

I already played this game...
My 2 scenarios are 1) Delta pulls a Dougie and attempts and succeeds a hostile take over of US.
2) US goes into BK and WN buys them.

The last may benefit all, but will involve feasting on crow on the part of US

 

[700UW]

And their Flight isnt into LGW and its not a non-stop.



Sun Country Announces New Summer Service To London
Convenient Low Fare Flights Begin June 11, 2010

St. Paul, MN- March 15, 2010

Sun Country Airlines today announced new international service between the Twin Cities of Minneapolis/St. Paul and London, England. The new flights will operate weekly from June 11 through August 15 departing the Twin Cities on Fridays with a midday return from London-Stansted airport on Sundays. The seasonal service will operate with an intermediate stop and offer both first class and coach seating on Sun Country’s Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Flights will be on sale beginning Monday, March 15, on SunCountry.com or by calling 1-800-FLY-NSUN.

Flights will be operated using Sun Country Boeing 737-800s that carry 162 passengers in two classes. The airline was recently awarded authority by the Federal Aviation Administration to operate those twin-engine planes over large expanses of water. The flights will stop in Gander, Newfoundland, for fuel and then proceed directly to London. The door-to-door travel time, including the stop, is nine hours, Mr. Gadek said.

 

[SparrowHawk]

And their Flight isnt into LGW and its not a non-stop.



Sun Country Announces New Summer Service To London
Convenient Low Fare Flights Begin June 11, 2010

Web Site says Gatwick and apparently it's seasonal and two days a week. Just curious, how far is it from Gander to LGW? Could these A/C be used on longer haul Flights?

 

[700UW]

Gander is in Newfoundland, Canada, quite a bit away from London, lol.

The plane doesnt have the range, that is why its stops in Gander is for fuel.

 

[SparrowHawk]

Gander is in Newfoundland, Canada, quite a bit away from London, lol.

The plane doesnt have the range, that is why its stops in Gander is for fuel.

But what if it left PHL instead of MSP? My thought process was/is if you can pick up the right kinds of planes from these tiny marginally profitable airlines you get aircraft on the cheap, some routes you may want and you get rid of some pesky little airlines that lower your yields. US could probably make some money building up MSP a bit with some point to point activity.

The airline was doing well until it got caught up in the Tom Petters scandal up here, It's profitable again and still in BK until a suitable buyer is found. IMO if WN wasn't trying to digest AirTran, Sun Country would be long gone as WN would have scarfed them up. Heck they both run out of the Humphrey Terminal.

Petters gets 50 years

 

[700UW]

Wont have the range from PHL either, and London Airports are slot controlled and as are city pairs, US and BA all ready fly from PHL- London, so that wont work.

 

[etops1]

The only and I repeat ONLY merger partners US is interested in is UA,DL,and AA. No one else as they bring little or no value to USAirways .
Scenario # 1: AA files for BK and US goes after them
Scenario# 2: After CO/UA fully combine Smisek's big ego gets to him and he turns around and goes after US.
Scenario #3: If Obama is elected out of office the next term DL goes after US combining and dominating the southeast. Yes the DOJ might frown on it but i am sure both carriers will have to divest assets.
Bottom line is USAirways will be involved in a merger with either 3 of these carriers . That I can put money on .

 

[SparrowHawk]

The only and I repeat ONLY merger partners US is interested in is UA,DL,and AA. No one else as they bring little or no value to USAirways .
Scenario # 1: AA files for BK and US goes after them
Scenario# 2: After CO/UA fully combine Smisek's big ego gets to him and he turns around and goes after US.
Scenario #3: If Obama is elected out of office the next term DL goes after US combining and dominating the southeast. Yes the DOJ might frown on it but i am sure both carriers will have to divest assets.
Bottom line is USAirways will be involved in a merger with either 3 of these carriers . That I can put money on .

I can support any of those scenarios just so long as Scott Kirby isn't part of the Executive Team. I think Doug would be a very good to excellent CFO of any one the above scenarios.

 

[nycbusdriver]

I can support any of those scenarios just so long as Scott Kirby isn't part of the Executive Team. I think Doug would be a very good to excellent CFO of any one the above scenarios.

You're right. Doug would make an excellent CFO and it would be a reverse "Peter Principle." However, the Doug Ego would NEVER submit to not being able to run the show. Any show. It was the same with David Siegel. He had to go run SOMETHING, so he ran the inflight kitchens for some Texas Pacific company.

Doug will never be CFO of an airline.

 

[SparrowHawk]

You're right. Doug would make an excellent CFO and it would be a reverse "Peter Principle." However, the Doug Ego would NEVER submit to not being able to run the show. Any show. It was the same with David Siegel. He had to go run SOMETHING, so he ran the inflight kitchens for some Texas Pacific company.

Doug will never be CFO of an airline.

I've not met Doug in person so I can't get a feel for his ego, although I've heard it's not quite as big as one might think. Apparently, according to my sources Scott Kirby has enough Ego to last Maricopa County.

Otherwise I think we agree. Ever stop to ponder where US would be today if the "Plan of Transformation" hadn't run smack into BK1? something like 400 50 seat RJ's and fuel spiking?

 

[safety stud]

The truth be told. Merger or NO Merger. The airline is destined to go by the way of the company. The pilot group with their seniority differences, The flight attendant group with their inability to stand up for themselves, The IAM and their inability to get long term maintanance issues resolved, The CWA governing the CSA's, The dispatchers whom differ on the direction and ability to sustain a long term viable entity.... Make way for only one conclusion...

The Company will do what they want, and you the employee will accept it, and do NOTHING about it... Period.

With the country at a dismall 10% unemployment rate... Gas prices still 100% higher than they were a year ago... Do you honestly think you have the ability to do anything about whatever happens accept take it? Would you be willing to strike for it... Would you be willing do a job action that might deter the very people you need to fly the airline... NO... Any other answer would be a lie.

So, on this day of Independance.... Look at the real picture.... Get down to the reality of life... and move on... Agree to what the company wants and needs and move on.... Because, in the end...

That's what you will do anyway...

Just my opinion...

 

[psw737]

The truth be told. Merger or NO Merger. The airline is destined to go by the way of the company. The pilot group with their seniority differences, The flight attendant group with their inability to stand up for themselves, The IAM and their inability to get long term maintanance issues resolved, The CWA governing the CSA's, The dispatchers whom differ on the direction and ability to sustain a long term viable entity.... Make way for only one conclusion...

The Company will do what they want, and you the employee will accept it, and do NOTHING about it... Period.

With the country at a dismall 10% unemployment rate... Gas prices still 100% higher than they were a year ago... Do you honestly think you have the ability to do anything about whatever happens accept take it? Would you be willing to strike for it... Would you be willing do a job action that might deter the very people you need to fly the airline... NO... Any other answer would be a lie.

So, on this day of Independance.... Look at the real picture.... Get down to the reality of life... and move on... Agree to what the company wants and needs and move on.... Because, in the end...

That's what you will do anyway...

Just my opinion...

I have always thought Spirit Airlines out of FLL would be a good small airline merger for US. 35 new Airbus aircraft with another 30-40 on order. AN established sucessful operation to the caribbean and south america out of fll and now is establishing a small focus city out of LAS with service to several key west coast cities with more to come as they receive the new aircraft. I think by the end of october they will be at around 30-35 LAS flights per day. Also, US have said they want to expand into South America , this would give them the access to several key cities that work to South Florida and allow connections to the major US cities. Just a thought.......