Make Your Predictions For 2004

[Ukridge]

Something that we do in our firm every December is to solicit everyone's best prognostication for our industry. We always feel it is a healthy exercise in trend analysis and often reveals some solid thinking. Even areas that we only obliquely deal with have been remarkable well commented upon. We also look back and see where we went wrong. Seems as if no other industry would be so open for this type of exercise than the airline. So, please, throw in your ideas - you may even be the first!

After I had read a brief article in the European press about a possible EADS (Airbus) investment in United's exit from bankruptcy, I thought that this was going to be the path. Now, after the announcement of two main houses stepping into the breech, I see that this guess was off target. Even thought I do not know anything of United's plans, I still could not imagine that they would be in a position to cement a large Airbus order in conjunction with financing. Only if Theodore grew explosively would such a scenario come to fruition.

My guess for 2004? It would be that United will secure the ATSB guarantee (remember it is not the money, simply the guarantee). I cannot be convinced that Mr. Tilton and the chaps from J.P. Morgan are not working hand-in-glove with the ATSB on this. I do not think Morgan would have allowed this announcement if they did not have an idea in which direction the winds are blowing. I also do not see United ceding Dulles this next year. Having a hub in the capital of the former colonies is too valuable irrespective of Airways' plans in other nearby cities. I also believe there will be a winnowing of the LCCs. It is going to happen in Europe and it will probably happen in the U.S. as well. Overall, when United exits, there is a window of opportunity for them to suddenly become the fair haired lad of the industry. A tough task, yes, but if Tilton plays it adroitly, I could see it happening.
Ideas?

 

[firstamendment]

US Airways labor stands firm to Bronner and Seigle. Bronner decides airlines are not his cup of tea (apparently he never spoke to Warren Buffet) and sales off U assets to whoever the hell wants them, putting 28,000 hard working employees out of a job and one unmentioned captain scratching his head. The UAL employees will celebrate because they will never ever have to hear about a merger again.

 

[Ukridge]

All right. Due to lack of ideas and responses I must inform you that the year 2004 will be canceled. After midnight on 31 December 2003 we will simply skip over 2004 and start with 2005.

 

[Doc]

I see UAL not being able to take care of its pension problem selling some assets to the highest bidder so they can get their loan and coming out of BK leaner. U may try to get some assets but its leadership has no idea what they are doing Dave gets fired from U........ UAL and U merge and dominate the world……….

 

[Fly]

I see a certain US Captain commandeering an RJ filled with UAL customers to IAD.

 

[novaqt]

I foresee that Congress will grant United the pension acceleration clause elimination they are seeking and allow pension repayments over the five years as they are seeking.

I predict United will continue with the very calculated precision steps in micromanaging the company successfully out of bankruptcy March/April 04.

I predict that TED, the LCC, will start off and grow its market slowly. As this happens, it will be finely tuned and will become a successful adjuct to the core business.

I predict that Mesa Airlines will win the hostel take over of Atlantic Coast and thus resolve the IAD problem.

With the announcement of the quarterly incentive pay plan for U.S. employees, there will be an immediate burst of energy and cooperative spirit in the employee rank and file.

Kudos to the senior management team, the lawyers and the bankers who have been successfully steering United through the bankruptcy process and rebuilding a more solid company for the future...one that the employees and customers can be proud of.

 

[737nCH11]

I see Doc pulling his head out of his a$$ and facing reality.

 

[Kev3188]

Lots and lots of labor strife at NW.

 

[atabuy]

UK,
I did not see much progress for Ual until I saw the proposed incentive program they are starting for 2004.

If the employees accept this plan and get behind it, it might help to get customers back.

It is nice to see the employees having a chance to get back, instead of give up.

 

[737nCH11]

I fully agree with atabuy. If UAL is already planning to implement an incentive program, I believe that bodes extremely well for the company.

Not only will it give customer service a boost (worked like a charm at Continental when they put a similar program in place), it speaks volumes about senior management's opinon of our prospects for 2004. I honestly think that UAL will be the company to beat when we emerge from CH11.

 

[firstamendment]

I fully agree with atabuy. If UAL is already planning to implement an incentive program, I believe that bodes extremely well for the company.

Not only will it give customer service a boost (worked like a charm at Continental when they put a similar program in place), it speaks volumes about senior management's opinon of our prospects for 2004. I honestly think that UAL will be the company to beat when we emerge from CH11.

Meanwhile at U, we are continually being threatened and told that we employees are the fault of all management's problems. You guys are very fortunate. Maybe somebody in our management team will read about this. I doubt it.

 

[ual06]

My predictions for 2004.

About mid year, a "Slumbering Giant" will awaken. As it becomes "awake", it will take two forms.

To some it will appear as a "Very Large Cuddly Teddy Bear". This group will consist mostly of "Customers".

To others it will appear as a "Nightmare of Horrific Proportions". This group will consist mostly of "Competitors".

 

[casual rat]

I think Congress will go The Industry's way. We'll have snappier looking planes. We'll emerge from BK. We won't get incentive pay as we'll "just miss" our targets. Steve Wolf will be found to be the antichrist as he goes for the 'in' look, but inconvieniently forgets something. American Airlines will have 'issues'. NW will have 'issues'. SW magic still occurs with the still bizarre notion that happy employees make for productive employees. Finally, I will win the lottery, retire at that moment, and wake up realizing that this was all one bad nightmare....Only then will I be able to live the hedonistic lifestyle they promised me when I hired on here....Ok, I'm kidding....Cheers!

 

[etops1]

u and ua will not merge . but i see ua selling assets and u buying them. thats just my opinion ua employees. don't get bent out of shape.

 

[737nCH11]

etops1 will come out of his trance and realize that he was being controlled by Chip's hypnotic powers.