Flufdriver
Senior
- Aug 20, 2002
- 396
- 6
What's up with the stock...hovering around $61.00 bucks....
LCC stock is up....
- Thread starter Flufdriver
- Start date
usair_begins_with_u
Veteran
- May 9, 2004
- 623
- 0
Shorties are licking their chops.
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- May 18, 2003
- 8,175
- 1,539
RESEARCH ALERT - Lehman raises US Airways price target
See Story
OUTLOOK RISING AS FUEL DECLINES - Lehman Brothers
* We continue to favor low-fare carriers; consolidation only enhances their relative merits from our perspective. Recommend buying AAI and JBLU and prefer LUV. Majors also a reasonable risk-reward with limited downside. Preference there remains for LCC.
* 4Q not what we'd hoped for. Reducing eestimates across the board given revenue disappointments even to our recent reductions.
Industry now looking unprofitable in quarter while we'd hoped for the first 4Q profit since 2000.
* Raising 2007 estimates as a function of lower fuel. We now assume a $59.90 crude price and $13.91 jet crack spread on average for 2007. Targets rise on significantly reduced forward curve.
* RASM outlook for 2007 up slightly absent consolidation as reduced capacity offsets economic weakness. Consolidation would provide potential upside to unit revenue forecasts.
* Given substantial changes in fuel, stocks not unreasonable on a valuation basis. Consolidation would provide potential upside and given fuel changes, not meaningfully discounted in stocks at present levels. Risk-reward remains generally positive.
US Airways Group (LCC - USD57.90) 1-Overweight/Positive - J/K/M
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Investing in LCC is very risky. Our outlook is predicated on historical trading patterns and our current profit expectations, which hinge on our view that the supply and demand balance in the industry will improve substantially in the years to come allowing LCC to raise prices significantly. If we have cause to question any of our assumptions about demand recovery, industry capacity decisions, various competitive forces, labor and other integration issues or geopolitical events among other things, we might be forced to make substantial and frequent changes to our profit expectations, targets, and recommendations.
Crude Oil Plunges Below $53 as U.S. Fuel Consumption Slips
See Story
USA320Pilot comments: Doug Parker recently indicated that US Airways is likely to be the only legacy carrier to report a 4th quarter profit and that US Airways will have another $8 million or so for profit sharing, which should raise the 2006 employee payout to about $50 million.
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
See Story
OUTLOOK RISING AS FUEL DECLINES - Lehman Brothers
* We continue to favor low-fare carriers; consolidation only enhances their relative merits from our perspective. Recommend buying AAI and JBLU and prefer LUV. Majors also a reasonable risk-reward with limited downside. Preference there remains for LCC.
* 4Q not what we'd hoped for. Reducing eestimates across the board given revenue disappointments even to our recent reductions.
Industry now looking unprofitable in quarter while we'd hoped for the first 4Q profit since 2000.
* Raising 2007 estimates as a function of lower fuel. We now assume a $59.90 crude price and $13.91 jet crack spread on average for 2007. Targets rise on significantly reduced forward curve.
* RASM outlook for 2007 up slightly absent consolidation as reduced capacity offsets economic weakness. Consolidation would provide potential upside to unit revenue forecasts.
* Given substantial changes in fuel, stocks not unreasonable on a valuation basis. Consolidation would provide potential upside and given fuel changes, not meaningfully discounted in stocks at present levels. Risk-reward remains generally positive.
US Airways Group (LCC - USD57.90) 1-Overweight/Positive - J/K/M
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Investing in LCC is very risky. Our outlook is predicated on historical trading patterns and our current profit expectations, which hinge on our view that the supply and demand balance in the industry will improve substantially in the years to come allowing LCC to raise prices significantly. If we have cause to question any of our assumptions about demand recovery, industry capacity decisions, various competitive forces, labor and other integration issues or geopolitical events among other things, we might be forced to make substantial and frequent changes to our profit expectations, targets, and recommendations.
Crude Oil Plunges Below $53 as U.S. Fuel Consumption Slips
See Story
USA320Pilot comments: Doug Parker recently indicated that US Airways is likely to be the only legacy carrier to report a 4th quarter profit and that US Airways will have another $8 million or so for profit sharing, which should raise the 2006 employee payout to about $50 million.
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
usair_begins_with_u
Veteran
- May 9, 2004
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- 0
DL/LCC could never service their debt load.
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- May 18, 2003
- 8,175
- 1,539
The Lehman Brothers research report was written earlier this week and released at 4:51 a.m. EST. At the time of writing the report indicated the security price was USD57.90.
Regards,
USA320Pilot
Regards,
USA320Pilot
A mind is a terrible thing to use.
Lets See The Creditors Salavate Over That!!USA320Pilot
Veteran
- May 18, 2003
- 8,175
- 1,539
usair_begins_with_u
Veteran
- May 9, 2004
- 623
- 0
Those who were wise enough to listen to uncle UBWU would be sitting on a nice chuck of change right now... A return of about 65-70% in two weeks is not bad work. Any hedge fund managers hiring, please send PM, I will respond to all reasonble offers.
I think the heard is catching on to the resulting debt load of a LCC/DL merger being slightly shy of ridiculous. You can only transfer wealth, not create it. Many in our own government have not learned that lesson yet.
I think the heard is catching on to the resulting debt load of a LCC/DL merger being slightly shy of ridiculous. You can only transfer wealth, not create it. Many in our own government have not learned that lesson yet.
usair_begins_with_u
Veteran
- May 9, 2004
- 623
- 0
Oooops, my inbox is now full. Thanks for all the PM's ladies and gents. It will take me a while to go through them all, but I will respond to each one in the order which they were recieved.
