eolesen
Veteran
- Jul 23, 2003
- 15,940
- 9,371
Tomorrow marks 150 days remaining until the midterms, and there have been a few shifts not yet reflected on RCP's electoral scoreboard...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/04/primaries-mississippi-iowa-gop-senate/9976487/
Looking below this level at the polling, more and more it appears that the split will be at least 51 or 52 in the GOP's favor.
1) Iowa Senate (Open)
After winning the GOP primary, Joni Ernst (yes, a woman, an Iraqi war vet, and a farmer) is now polling ahead of the Democrat white male lawyer who made the gaffe of the year by referring to popular Sen. Chuck Grassley as "a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school" at a gathering of lawyers in Texas. Oops.
Rasmussen has Ernst ahead by 1, and Loras College has her ahead by 6. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
2) Arkansas Senate (D)
The most recent poll taken since the GOP primary has Tom Cotton (R) ahead of incumbent Mark Pryor by 4. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
3) North Carolina Senate (D)
All of the polling done GOP primary last month have Thom Tillis polling ahead of Kay Hagen. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
4) Kentucky (R)
Mitch McConnell has been out polling Alison Grimes for two months, and in the last two weeks has been between 3 and 7 points ahead. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
5) Georgia (open)
There's a runoff in the primary to determine the GOP's candidate, but both candidates involved in the primary are polling ahead of the Democrat by 5 points or greater. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
6) Louisiana (D)
Louisiana is an open primary on Nov. 14, with Mary Landrieu running against three GOP contenders. If no single candidate gets 50%, the top two advance to a December run-off, and depending on the outcome of the rest of the races, I'd expect to see a lot of money move into the runoff...
7) Colorado
Probably unlikely that Mike Udall will lose here, and the state will remain in the Democrat's column.
8) Alaska
The GOP primary isn't until August 19, so it's too soon to say if anyone will be able to overcome Mark Begich (D).
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/04/primaries-mississippi-iowa-gop-senate/9976487/
Looking below this level at the polling, more and more it appears that the split will be at least 51 or 52 in the GOP's favor.
1) Iowa Senate (Open)
After winning the GOP primary, Joni Ernst (yes, a woman, an Iraqi war vet, and a farmer) is now polling ahead of the Democrat white male lawyer who made the gaffe of the year by referring to popular Sen. Chuck Grassley as "a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school" at a gathering of lawyers in Texas. Oops.
Rasmussen has Ernst ahead by 1, and Loras College has her ahead by 6. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
2) Arkansas Senate (D)
The most recent poll taken since the GOP primary has Tom Cotton (R) ahead of incumbent Mark Pryor by 4. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
3) North Carolina Senate (D)
All of the polling done GOP primary last month have Thom Tillis polling ahead of Kay Hagen. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
4) Kentucky (R)
Mitch McConnell has been out polling Alison Grimes for two months, and in the last two weeks has been between 3 and 7 points ahead. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
5) Georgia (open)
There's a runoff in the primary to determine the GOP's candidate, but both candidates involved in the primary are polling ahead of the Democrat by 5 points or greater. RCP still shows the state as a toss-up.
6) Louisiana (D)
Louisiana is an open primary on Nov. 14, with Mary Landrieu running against three GOP contenders. If no single candidate gets 50%, the top two advance to a December run-off, and depending on the outcome of the rest of the races, I'd expect to see a lot of money move into the runoff...
7) Colorado
Probably unlikely that Mike Udall will lose here, and the state will remain in the Democrat's column.
8) Alaska
The GOP primary isn't until August 19, so it's too soon to say if anyone will be able to overcome Mark Begich (D).
