E190s vs 737s

[javaboy]

from the Embraer Press Release

February, 2006, Embraer and U.S. Airways Group, Inc. reached an agreement to convert 57 undelivered EMBRAER 170 aircraft into 25 firm EMBRAER 190 aircraft and 32 additional firm EMBRAER 190 aircraft that are subject to reconfirmation by US Airways. US Airways also placed 50 options for other aircraft in the EMBRAER 170/190 family. Deliveries are scheduled to resume in November 2006

Does this mean that it could be a one for one swap of 737s for e190s? what is the fleet plan? simple enough either total fleet is increased by 57 or not. While no additional furloughs would occur does this mean 737 drivers might be forced to the 190?
h34r:

 

[BoeingBoy]

As of what is known today (outside the executive ranks), the fleet plan for this year (not counting the E190's) is to lose 10 aircraft between the end of 1Q06 and the end of 3Q06 - 1 B757, 2 A320's, and 7 B737-300's. That's contained in the guidance issued on May 9. That leaves a fleet of 357 aircraft, again not counting the E190's.

Beyond the end of this year, other aircraft leases are scheduled to expire and GE has the ability (under certain conditions) to begin taking back 11 B737's over a 12 month period starting summer 2007.

Jim

 

[a320av8r]

From About US, May 13,2006 issue...

Q. When will the first class for EMB190 pilot training take place?
A. The first class is scheduled for September of 2006.

Q.What is the future of the 737 fleet? Is the E-190 seen as a replacement for the 737?
A. At this point, we don’t have replacement plans for the 737s. The E190s are currently being considered growth aircraft, but as the 737s age, we know we will need a plan for replacements and various alternatives are being studied now.

Emphasis added by me.

We in the east know what "but" means...

 

[FlyOnWall]

If the 190s work out well you'll probably eventually see the E195s as the direct 737 replacement. US has been flying the E-Jets for two years, they were one of the launch customers, so they shouldn't have too many problems.

 

[FCYTravis]

I would hazard a guess that, barring a next-gen narrowbody being announced in the next couple of years, that the 737s will be replaced by a mix of Embraer 190 (the 32-unit follow-on order perhaps being the first wave) and additional A319s.

Unless there's a radical leap forward in narrowbody technology, I don't really see US complicating the fleet any more than they have to, at least in the near term.

 

[700UW]

Boeing is currently designing a new 737RS a replacement plane, also been known as Y1.

First of all the working identity at Boeing for the 737 successor is the 797.

The baseline 797 will be 150 and 180 seats.

Alan Mullally said at the Paris Airshow that it is a possibility that Boeing will do two or even three different fuselage sizes. Five abreast, six abreast and even a seven abreast.

A twin aisle has some significant advantages aside from passenger appeal. A wider cabin would allow for centerline bins for greater carry-on storage and by that speed up turn around times including deplaning from two aisles.

The most critical part is a new engine rated at 23 000 lb to 35 000 lb and noise levels of the 797 will be 26 % lower than the current 737.


From ATW May 2006 Page 51-52

a) short range (~2,000nm) family:
- 737RS-1 - 130 2-class pax
- 737RS-2 - 160 2-class pax
a) medium range (~3,500nm) family:
- 737RS-1 - 130 2-class pax (HGW Version of -1 mentioned above)
- 737RS-2 - 160 2-class pax (HGW Version of -2 mentioned above)
- 737RS-3 - 190 2-class pax
- 737RS-4 - 220 2-class pax
B) long range (~6,000nm) family:
- 737RS-8 - 190 2-class pax
- 737RS-9 - 220 2-class pax

Medium range family planes would have the same, or similar, wingspan to today's 737s with standard blended winglets. The -4 would address the need for transcontinental US/EU charter/Asia regional market - basically all the routes that require the extra capacity of todays domestic/regional 757-200s. -1 and -2 would probably come in "standard" and "higher gross weight" variants for the short- and medium-haul for their respective models. The "standard" range version would have a lighter structure in order to have lower CASM and would not have the extra range where it is not needed (flights within EU for example).

Long range family would get a wingspan similar to the one of 767-400, with wingtip extentions similar to those of 787-8/-9.

I doubt there would be a significant interest in anything bigger than 2-class 220 pax plane on the market, as it approaches 787-8 in size.

Look for 18' standard 6-abreast seating with LD3 single file capability in the cargo hold.

I doubt either manufacturer will go for less than 130 seats, as the lower end of mainline market basically oscillates around that number (just look at the slow sales of 737-600 and A318). anything for 110 seats and less will be made by Embraer or Sukhoi. Hate to say it, but with the lack of vision at Bombardier, I could see them being downgraded to business-jet only manufacturer... which is a shame, because I was really looking forward for them to launch C-Series

 

[javaboy]

As of what is known today (outside the executive ranks), the fleet plan for this year (not counting the E190's) is to lose 10 aircraft between the end of 1Q06 and the end of 3Q06 - 1 B757, 2 A320's, and 7 B737-300's. That's contained in the guidance issued on May 9. That leaves a fleet of 357 aircraft, again not counting the E190's.

Beyond the end of this year, other aircraft leases are scheduled to expire and GE has the ability (under certain conditions) to begin taking back 11 B737's over a 12 month period starting summer 2007.

Jim

thanks for the response...

now..

do the above numbers, include, are a part of, have nothing to do with the 68 (or so) b737s that were rejected (leases) which dropped the fleet count to a number lower than what you have above. in other words are these the "specifics" of previously announced plans or something beyond what was approved by the judge in bk?

thanks

 

[BoeingBoy]

do the above numbers, include, are a part of, have nothing to do with the 68 (or so) b737s that were rejected (leases) which dropped the fleet count to a number lower than what you have above. in other words are these the "specifics" of previously announced plans or something beyond what was approved by the judge in bk?

Sorry for the delay, javaboy - been out flying....

Unless something has changed in the last 4 days, those numbers are accurate for the combined fleet, not just East, as of the date the company put them out. Presumably, they include all the known aircraft returns for the remainder of this year as well as any aircraft coming this year.

Other than approving the GE deal, which included the possibility of taking back the 11 737's starting in the summer of 2007, I think the judge is about out of the picture. Future returns are the result of lease expirations or leasors having the right to take back planes early.

From the outside, there's no way that I can tell what the fleet will look like next year - leases can be extended in negotiations, "new" planes can arrive (like the 3 757's), etc. The annual report contains a table showing deliveries/returns out several years, but I presume it is also only a plan and not cast in stone.

Here's the stats from the annual report:

As of 12/31/05, East had 232 and West 141 mainline aircraft. So 373 airplanes is the starting point for deliveries/returns.

In 2006, East has 11 leases expiring and leasors have 18 "call options" (can take planes back early) while West has 2 deliveries, 2 leasor "put options" (can extend lease), 12 lease expirations, and 6 leasor "call options". That's a net loss of possibly 43 airplanes this year, less the 3 757's acquired, which would result in the end of year fleet count being 333 planes. Since the guidance given on 5/9/06 anticipates 357 aircraft at year end, I presume that this later figure is more accurate.

In 2007, East has 22 leases expiring and 18 leasor call options while West has 17 leases expiring and 6 leasor call options.

In 2008, East has 42 leases expiring and 18 leasor call options while West has 19 leases expiring.

In 2009, the deferred Airbus deliveries start.

So in a worst case where the leasors took back all the planes they contractually could and no replacements were found, there would be major shrinkage of mainline. In a best case, all these leases would be renegotiated (or those planes replaced by others) and no shrinkage would take place - there could even be growth if more new leases were signed than expire. But at this point any conjecture about what the fleet will look like in the next few years is pure guesswork.

Jim