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- Mar 5, 2004
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http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadA...le.asp?ID=28235
In leaving Pakistan, al-Qaeda will lose Waziristan’s protective terrain where, as one Pakistani writer put it, “large groups of al-Qaeda and Tailiban could move in and out without detection” and bin Laden “…could swim like a fish in the ocean”, hence helping him greatly to avoid capture so far. It will also bring the extremist Muslim terrorist organization into conflict with other Sunni Muslim groups in Iraq who do not want it there, as some believe has already happened.
But a move of operations to Iraq will also provide al-Qaeda with some distinct advantages. Intelligence analyst Michael Scheuer, in an interview with National Interest Online, says al-Qaeda has, since the American invasion, always viewed Iraq as an opportunity to push its operations one thousand kilometers westward. Al-Qaeda, Scheuer said, sees Iraq “…as contiguous territory from which to launch attacks and infiltration to the Arabian Peninsula, into Turkey and into the Levant, and eventually into Lebanon and Israel.” Scheuer notes that bin Laden has always said he could not attack Israel because he did not have contiguous territory.
In addition to the areas Scheuer mentions, in Iraq al Qaeda will also be better positioned to organize attacks in Europe and in North African countries as well as to acquire new recruits. One of al-Qaeda’s goals, observers say, is to disrupt European alliances with the United States in the War on Terror. Bin Laden hopes to do so with more terrorist strikes against European countries, causing them to abandon the fight like Spain did in Iraq after the Madrid commuter train bombings.