US Airways sees 'weaknesses' turn to strengths now
Business travel has been the hardest hit and isn't expected to turn around until the economy rebounds. US Airways' shuttle service for New York, Boston and Washington, D.C., felt the biggest impact on that front.
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Lower fuel costs trim US Airways' first-quarter loss
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. analyst Michael Linenberg said in a note to clients that US Airways' "underlying business actually is doing well despite the macro backdrop" of the recession and falloff in travel.
A $170 million net gain associated with the value of fuel-hedge contracts had a significant effect on first-quarter results, US Airways said.
"We've pulled down an appropriate amount of capacity and will explore additional reductions if the economic environment warrants," Parker said.
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US Airways posts $103 million first-quarter loss but remains optimistic
With international demand, particularly for business travel, dropping rapidly and badly hurting other major US carriers, Chairman and CEO Doug Parker claimed that "our relatively higher domestic enplanements. . .means that we have a greater ability to capitalize. . .both in the current economic environment and also when the economy turns around." Speaking to analysts and reporters, he added, "We have less international exposure than [US's competitors] do and that turns out to be good right now . . .[The domestic market] is actually performing reasonably well right now."
Parker, while declining to give a specific forecast, said it is not "a stretch to say" that US and other American carriers could earn full-year profits.
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Bullet Points from US Airways' Analyst Conference Call
1. Excluding net special credits and net realized losses/gains on fuel hedging transactions, the Company reported operating income of $8 million and a net loss of $63 million for its first quarter 2009. This compares to an operating loss and net loss of $287 million and $321 million, respectively, for the same period last year.
2. US Airways had the best revenue or RASM performance versus its peers in the industry. Total domestic RASM is down 4% and transatlantic RASM is down 20%, which is very good for US Airways because of its lack of international exposure unlike the Tempe-based company’s hub-and-spoke peers. Revenue has bottomed out, but it’s not getting better. There is significant future revenue uncertainty. Business demand has not seen any improvement.
3. Since implementation in May 2008, the Company’s a la carte revenue programs have generated more than $255 million in incremental revenue. The Company expects these programs to generate $400 million to $500 million in revenue in 2009.
4. Mainline cost per available seat mile (CASM) in the first quarter was 11.05 cents, down 12.0 percent versus the same period last year. Scott Kirby said, “the company is very pleased with its cost discipline.†Going forward unit costs will be “forecast downward.â€
5. During the first quarter US Airways completed a series of financial transactions, which raised approximately $115 million in net proceeds. The Company had $2.1 billion in total cash and investments, of which $0.7 billion was restricted, on March 31, 2009. Today’s cash position is higher today than on March 31, 2009 and it will grow in the second quarter. The company has a better relative cash position than its peers and management is not currently looking for additional cash financings.
6. The company currently has 347 aircraft in its fleet and will end the year with 351 aircraft in the inventory. During the first quarter US Airways returned 5 older A320s, 2 B737s, and 2 B757s to its owners. For the remainder of 2009 the company will take delivery of 20 new aircraft and retire 13 older B757s, 7 B737s, and 1 A320. All new aircraft deliveries have financing in place except the 5 A330-200s. The first two A330-200s will be delivered in May with management expecting Airbus to provide financing shortly with customary advance rates. The delivery of newer more efficient aircraft, which are fleet replacements, will help the company lower its unit costs going further.
7. The company is forecasting its 2009 fuel expense to be between $1.96 and $2.01, the company has not hedged since August 2008 and does not anticipating to do so, and its fuel hedge loss will average 37 cents per gallon.
8. Going forward management is confident it will outperform its peers because domestic travel is outperforming international and international business is expected to decline more rapidly and get worse going forward, US Airways has the highest positive exposure to a la carte pricing and revenue gain due to the company being a more domestic-based airline with more takeoffs and landings, and international cargo/cargo revenue at others carriers is dramatically losing market share.
9. The company is doing its mid-August and beyond schedule planning. Scott Kirby said, “if the revenue bottom is here, but not improving, its his opinion is US Airways should have lower capacity in the fall and beyond.†The B767s have month-to-month leases that can be canceled at any time (note - in a previous Crew News session Scott Kirby said 2 to 4 B767s could be returned to the lessors next year and replaced with A330s-200s). It’s too early to tell if US Airways will pull out of European markets and make a “knee jerk†reaction. The company may fly some of these markets less than seven days per week or make them seasonal markets due to serious trans-Atlantic demand fall off.
10. US Airways next marginal opportunities to Rio De Janeiro and Tel Aviv, but does see long-term long range international growth opportunities when the international revenue environment improves.
11. In regard to the Addington vs. USAPA DFR seniority integrationtrial management would like “closure†to the problem.
USA320Pilot comments: Management has done an excellent job navigating the company's course during the fuel crisis and severe economic recession. I believe the company is positioned about as well as it can be considering the history of US Airways and America West. Employees should be commended for doing an outstanding job in administration and operations with its on-time performance, mishandled bags, and customer complaints all seeing significant year-over-year positive results!
Regards,
USA320Pilot